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<p>The warming climate has significantly accelerated glacier retreat in the Trans-Himalayan region of Kargil, Ladakh, leading to the formation of new glacial lakes and the expansion of existing ones. This trend heightens the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). To assess these changes, the first multi-temporal and basin-specific inventories of glacial lakes were created for the years 1994, 2008, and 2022 using Landsat 5 TM and Sentinel-2&#xa0;A imagery, capturing their spatio-temporal dynamics. A total of 252 glacial lakes (731.94 ± 95.7646&#xa0;ha) were identified in 1994, increasing to 263 lakes (798.09 ± 95.826&#xa0;ha) in 2008 and 311 lakes (1094.60 ± 24.4115&#xa0;ha) by 2022, reflecting a 23.41% rise in lake count and a <b>49.55%</b> increase in total area over the 28-year period. The Shingo basin exhibited the highest lake concentration. Notably, the largest lake in 2022 spanned 63.08&#xa0;ha, and the number of lakes larger than 20&#xa0;ha rose from two in 1994 to six in 2022. Supra-glacial lakes experienced the most dramatic growth, with a 216.66% increase in number and an 803.24% rise in area. While end-moraine-dammed lakes declined in number (from 17 to 12), their area expanded significantly—from 96.297 ± 8.1256&#xa0;ha in 1994 to 216.971 ± 1.4620&#xa0;ha in 2022, a 125.31% increase. In 2022, 67.84% of the lakes were classified as “Other Glacial Erosion Lakes.” Altitudinal analysis reveals a progressive upward shift in glacial lake formation, with mean elevation increasing by 25&#xa0;m from 4659&#xa0;m in 1994 to 4684&#xa0;m in 2022. More than 80% of the lakes are situated between 4500 and 6000&#xa0;m above mean sea level. Climatic trend analysis, based on the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, indicates a statistically significant warming trend (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05), with the most pronounced temperature rise occurring in September (Sen’s slope = + 0.08&#xa0;°C/year). Consequently, the combined effect of rising temperatures and decreasing precipitation is likely accelerating glacier mass loss, contributing to the expansion of existing glacial lakes and the rapid formation of new ones. The rapid expansion of glacial lakes, combined with these climatic shifts, underscores an increasing risk of GLOFs. This study provides vital insights for identifying high-risk lakes and developing mitigation strategies. It supports the need for early warning systems, adaptive infrastructure planning, and policy integration aligned with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 6, 11, and 13.</p> Graphical Abstract <p>The graphical abstract presents a brief analysis of glacial lake dynamics in response to climate change in the Trans-Himalayan region of Kargil, Ladakh. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for assessing the impact of climate change on glacial areas. The first component of this research involves the acquisition of remote sensing data, particularly from Landsat and Sentinel satellites, covering the period from 1994 to 2022. This data is then processed to establish a reliable foundation for further analysis. The study also includes glacial lake mapping and classification, focusing on categorizing these lakes to provide valuable insights into their distribution and characteristics. The third component examines the spatio-temporal dynamics, analyzing changes in the glacial lakes over time and space to reveal patterns associated with climate change. Finally, a climate trend analysis investigates shifts in precipitation and rising temperatures, offering context for the observed changes in the glacial lakes.</p> <p></p>

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Basin-Wise Inventory (1994–2022) of Glacial Lakes in the Trans-Himalayan Region of Kargil-Ladakh: A multi-temporal Assessment Under Changing Climate

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月31日

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  • Habibullah,
  • Inzamam Ul-Haq,
  • Shafiq Ahmed,
  • Mansoor Ahmad,
  • Riyaz Ahmad Mir,
  • Rayees Ahmed,
  • Md. Sarfaraz Asgher,
  • Aqil Tariq

摘要

The warming climate has significantly accelerated glacier retreat in the Trans-Himalayan region of Kargil, Ladakh, leading to the formation of new glacial lakes and the expansion of existing ones. This trend heightens the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). To assess these changes, the first multi-temporal and basin-specific inventories of glacial lakes were created for the years 1994, 2008, and 2022 using Landsat 5 TM and Sentinel-2 A imagery, capturing their spatio-temporal dynamics. A total of 252 glacial lakes (731.94 ± 95.7646 ha) were identified in 1994, increasing to 263 lakes (798.09 ± 95.826 ha) in 2008 and 311 lakes (1094.60 ± 24.4115 ha) by 2022, reflecting a 23.41% rise in lake count and a 49.55% increase in total area over the 28-year period. The Shingo basin exhibited the highest lake concentration. Notably, the largest lake in 2022 spanned 63.08 ha, and the number of lakes larger than 20 ha rose from two in 1994 to six in 2022. Supra-glacial lakes experienced the most dramatic growth, with a 216.66% increase in number and an 803.24% rise in area. While end-moraine-dammed lakes declined in number (from 17 to 12), their area expanded significantly—from 96.297 ± 8.1256 ha in 1994 to 216.971 ± 1.4620 ha in 2022, a 125.31% increase. In 2022, 67.84% of the lakes were classified as “Other Glacial Erosion Lakes.” Altitudinal analysis reveals a progressive upward shift in glacial lake formation, with mean elevation increasing by 25 m from 4659 m in 1994 to 4684 m in 2022. More than 80% of the lakes are situated between 4500 and 6000 m above mean sea level. Climatic trend analysis, based on the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, indicates a statistically significant warming trend (p < 0.05), with the most pronounced temperature rise occurring in September (Sen’s slope = + 0.08 °C/year). Consequently, the combined effect of rising temperatures and decreasing precipitation is likely accelerating glacier mass loss, contributing to the expansion of existing glacial lakes and the rapid formation of new ones. The rapid expansion of glacial lakes, combined with these climatic shifts, underscores an increasing risk of GLOFs. This study provides vital insights for identifying high-risk lakes and developing mitigation strategies. It supports the need for early warning systems, adaptive infrastructure planning, and policy integration aligned with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 6, 11, and 13.

Graphical Abstract

The graphical abstract presents a brief analysis of glacial lake dynamics in response to climate change in the Trans-Himalayan region of Kargil, Ladakh. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for assessing the impact of climate change on glacial areas. The first component of this research involves the acquisition of remote sensing data, particularly from Landsat and Sentinel satellites, covering the period from 1994 to 2022. This data is then processed to establish a reliable foundation for further analysis. The study also includes glacial lake mapping and classification, focusing on categorizing these lakes to provide valuable insights into their distribution and characteristics. The third component examines the spatio-temporal dynamics, analyzing changes in the glacial lakes over time and space to reveal patterns associated with climate change. Finally, a climate trend analysis investigates shifts in precipitation and rising temperatures, offering context for the observed changes in the glacial lakes.