Scholarlink

<p>The Bajos Submeridionales in central-eastern Argentina, an important region from both ecological and socioeconomic perspectives, is negatively affected by climate change and variability. This study addresses the historical climate variability and future projections of temperature, precipitation, and extreme events in the Bajos Submeridionales Basin. Using a comprehensive dataset of long-term meteorological observations alongside medium- and high-resolution CMIP6 General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations, we evaluate model skill in reproducing observed climate patterns and explore projected changes under multiple Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP5–8.5, and a high-resolution future scenario). Historical analyses reveal a consistent increase in annual precipitation since the 1970s, predominantly in the basin’s wetter eastern zone, coupled with rising minimum and maximum temperatures. These changes have driven a notable reduction in frost days and cold spells, alongside an increased frequency and duration of heatwaves. Model evaluation against observational datasets (CRU TS 4.03 for temperature and GPCC v2018 for precipitation) demonstrates improved performance following bias correction, particularly in simulating precipitation variability. Future projections for 2021–2050 indicate widespread regional warming exceeding 2&#xa0;°C under high-emission scenarios, with spatially heterogeneous precipitation changes generally below 5%, including localized increases in the northern and southern basin regions and declines centrally. Importantly, extreme events are projected to intensify: droughts are expected to become more frequent but shorter, while wet extremes will increase in both frequency and duration. Heatwaves are projected to lengthen by 2–4&#xa0;days on average and occur 1.5 times more often per decade, especially impacting the northeastern parts of Santa Fe and Chaco provinces. These findings elucidate the evolving climate dynamics of the Bajos Submeridionales, emphasizing the critical need for adaptive strategies to mitigate risks from escalating temperature extremes and hydrological variability, thereby informing regional climate resilience and sustainable management efforts.</p> Graphical Abstract <p>The graphical abstract summarizes the spatio-temporal assessment of historical climate variability and future projections of temperature, precipitation, and extreme events in the Bajos Submeridionales Basin, Argentina (location shown on the map on the left). Based on long-term meteorological observations and simulations from CMIP6 medium- and high-resolution models, the study characterizes observed trends and evaluates projected changes under multiple future socioeconomic scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP5–8.5, and highres-future). The upper graphic in the center shows observed warming, while the lower graphic shows a consistent increase in annual precipitation since the 1970s. For both graphics, the model-based projections for 2021–2050 show regional warming (up to &gt; 2&#xa0;°C under SSP5–8.5), minor but spatially heterogeneous precipitation changes, and intensification of extremes. The maps on the right depict more frequent and longer-lasting heatwaves, increased frequency of short droughts, and more prolonged wet episodes compared to the reference period. Overall, this synthesis of regional climate dynamics, combining past and future perspectives, emphasizes the need for adaptation strategies in light of intensifying climate extremes.</p> <p></p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Regional Warming and Intensifying Extremes: Past and Future Climate in the Bajos Submeridionales Basin, Argentina

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月26日

查看全文
  • Gabriela V. Müller,
  • Miguel A. Lovino,
  • M. Josefina Pierrestegui,
  • Paula Richter,
  • Marcos Longo,
  • Aqil Tariq

摘要

The Bajos Submeridionales in central-eastern Argentina, an important region from both ecological and socioeconomic perspectives, is negatively affected by climate change and variability. This study addresses the historical climate variability and future projections of temperature, precipitation, and extreme events in the Bajos Submeridionales Basin. Using a comprehensive dataset of long-term meteorological observations alongside medium- and high-resolution CMIP6 General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations, we evaluate model skill in reproducing observed climate patterns and explore projected changes under multiple Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP5–8.5, and a high-resolution future scenario). Historical analyses reveal a consistent increase in annual precipitation since the 1970s, predominantly in the basin’s wetter eastern zone, coupled with rising minimum and maximum temperatures. These changes have driven a notable reduction in frost days and cold spells, alongside an increased frequency and duration of heatwaves. Model evaluation against observational datasets (CRU TS 4.03 for temperature and GPCC v2018 for precipitation) demonstrates improved performance following bias correction, particularly in simulating precipitation variability. Future projections for 2021–2050 indicate widespread regional warming exceeding 2 °C under high-emission scenarios, with spatially heterogeneous precipitation changes generally below 5%, including localized increases in the northern and southern basin regions and declines centrally. Importantly, extreme events are projected to intensify: droughts are expected to become more frequent but shorter, while wet extremes will increase in both frequency and duration. Heatwaves are projected to lengthen by 2–4 days on average and occur 1.5 times more often per decade, especially impacting the northeastern parts of Santa Fe and Chaco provinces. These findings elucidate the evolving climate dynamics of the Bajos Submeridionales, emphasizing the critical need for adaptive strategies to mitigate risks from escalating temperature extremes and hydrological variability, thereby informing regional climate resilience and sustainable management efforts.

Graphical Abstract

The graphical abstract summarizes the spatio-temporal assessment of historical climate variability and future projections of temperature, precipitation, and extreme events in the Bajos Submeridionales Basin, Argentina (location shown on the map on the left). Based on long-term meteorological observations and simulations from CMIP6 medium- and high-resolution models, the study characterizes observed trends and evaluates projected changes under multiple future socioeconomic scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP5–8.5, and highres-future). The upper graphic in the center shows observed warming, while the lower graphic shows a consistent increase in annual precipitation since the 1970s. For both graphics, the model-based projections for 2021–2050 show regional warming (up to > 2 °C under SSP5–8.5), minor but spatially heterogeneous precipitation changes, and intensification of extremes. The maps on the right depict more frequent and longer-lasting heatwaves, increased frequency of short droughts, and more prolonged wet episodes compared to the reference period. Overall, this synthesis of regional climate dynamics, combining past and future perspectives, emphasizes the need for adaptation strategies in light of intensifying climate extremes.