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<p>Kyrgyzstan is highly susceptible to mudflows and floods, with approximately 95% of settlements at risk due to their locations along riverbanks, alluvial fans, and temporary watercourses. This vulnerability is further exacerbated by their proximity to transport infrastructure, farmland, and hydraulic engineering and irrigation structures. This study focuses on the river basins in the southern part of the Fergana Valley, specifically the Isfiram-Sai, Shakhimardan, and Aravan-Sai rivers. Given that temperature, precipitation, and runoff are key drivers of mudflows and floods, it is crucial to examine the future hydrometeorological regime in these regions. Projections indicate an average temperature increase of 1–1.3&#xa0;°C, with maximum increases of 1.6–1.9&#xa0;°C expected in July and August. Additionally, spring precipitation is projected to rise by 79–126% by 2040 in the studied river basins. The HBV3-ETH9 hydrological model was employed to estimate runoff for these basins by 2040. Results show that significant runoff increases are expected on the Isfiram-Sai River in May and June, reaching 126–202% of normal, and in July and August at 127–171% of normal for the period from 2029 to 2040. For the Shakhimardan River, the highest flow increases are anticipated from May to September, with levels between 139 and 218% of normal. Calculations for the Aravan-Sai River indicate increased flows in May, ranging from 168% of normal under the CMIP6 SSP2-4.5 scenario to 209% under the CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 scenario. Consequently, the number of mudflows and floods is likely to increase in spring and summer in these river basins in the future. The hydrological modeling results highlight the need for adaptation measures to address climate challenges, including the construction of protective dams and water regulation reservoirs, the modernization of irrigation systems, the use of crop management technologies, the development of climate-resilient crop varieties, and the implementation of ecosystem-based bank protection measures, such as planting shrubs in river floodplains and on mountain slopes to protect against coastal and slope erosion.</p> Graphical Abstract <p>This study assesses the risk of floods and mudflows in the mountainous river catchments of Shakhimardan, Isfiram-Sai, and Aravan-Sai in the Alay Range of Kyrgyzstan. For the analysis, we applied bias-corrected precipitation and temperature projections from CMIP6 models under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, along with the HBV3-ETH9 hydrological model. The HBV3-ETH9 model was chosen for its minimal input requirements – temperature, precipitation, evaporation, and discharge – and its advanced glacier module, which enhances runoff simulation in glaciated basins. This capability allows the model to accurately capture multiple flood peaks caused by snowmelt and glacial meltwater, making it particularly well-suited for mountainous regions like our study area. Projection analysis reveals that the study area is expected to experience an average temperature rise of 1–1.3 °C, with July and August temperatures increasing by 1.6–1.9 °C by 2040. Precipitation is projected to increase by 33–50% on average, with a more pronounced rise of 79–126% from March to May. By simulating discharge for the period 2024–2040 across the three river basins using these projections, we evaluated the risks of mudflows and floods. The results indicate a significant increase in discharge for the Isfiram-Sai, Shakhimardan, and Aravan-Sai rivers, particularly during spring and summer. For the Shakhimardan River, the largest discharge increases are expected from May to September, ranging from 139 to 218% of normal levels. For the Isfiram-Sai River, discharge is projected to increase by 126–202% in May and June compared to normal levels. For the Aravan-Sai River, discharge in May is expected to reach 168–209% of normal levels. Additionally, the study identifies a shift in the timing of flood peaks: the main flood peak is expected to move from July to June in the Isfiram-Sai River and from June to May in the Aravan-Sai River. This shift is attributed to earlier snowmelt and increased spring precipitation, which could have significant implications for water resource management. These changes indicate a high risk of mudflows and floods due to increased precipitation and accelerated glacier and snowmelt. Given these findings, proactive flood preparedness and adaptive measures are essential to mitigate the risks posed by these changing hydrological conditions.</p> <p></p>

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Mudflow and Flood Hazard Risk Evaluation in Kyrgyzstan Using Hydrological Modeling and CMIP6 Models

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月20日

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  • Olga Yu. Kalashnikova,
  • Iuliia Radchenko,
  • Zoya Kretova

摘要

Kyrgyzstan is highly susceptible to mudflows and floods, with approximately 95% of settlements at risk due to their locations along riverbanks, alluvial fans, and temporary watercourses. This vulnerability is further exacerbated by their proximity to transport infrastructure, farmland, and hydraulic engineering and irrigation structures. This study focuses on the river basins in the southern part of the Fergana Valley, specifically the Isfiram-Sai, Shakhimardan, and Aravan-Sai rivers. Given that temperature, precipitation, and runoff are key drivers of mudflows and floods, it is crucial to examine the future hydrometeorological regime in these regions. Projections indicate an average temperature increase of 1–1.3 °C, with maximum increases of 1.6–1.9 °C expected in July and August. Additionally, spring precipitation is projected to rise by 79–126% by 2040 in the studied river basins. The HBV3-ETH9 hydrological model was employed to estimate runoff for these basins by 2040. Results show that significant runoff increases are expected on the Isfiram-Sai River in May and June, reaching 126–202% of normal, and in July and August at 127–171% of normal for the period from 2029 to 2040. For the Shakhimardan River, the highest flow increases are anticipated from May to September, with levels between 139 and 218% of normal. Calculations for the Aravan-Sai River indicate increased flows in May, ranging from 168% of normal under the CMIP6 SSP2-4.5 scenario to 209% under the CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 scenario. Consequently, the number of mudflows and floods is likely to increase in spring and summer in these river basins in the future. The hydrological modeling results highlight the need for adaptation measures to address climate challenges, including the construction of protective dams and water regulation reservoirs, the modernization of irrigation systems, the use of crop management technologies, the development of climate-resilient crop varieties, and the implementation of ecosystem-based bank protection measures, such as planting shrubs in river floodplains and on mountain slopes to protect against coastal and slope erosion.

Graphical Abstract

This study assesses the risk of floods and mudflows in the mountainous river catchments of Shakhimardan, Isfiram-Sai, and Aravan-Sai in the Alay Range of Kyrgyzstan. For the analysis, we applied bias-corrected precipitation and temperature projections from CMIP6 models under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, along with the HBV3-ETH9 hydrological model. The HBV3-ETH9 model was chosen for its minimal input requirements – temperature, precipitation, evaporation, and discharge – and its advanced glacier module, which enhances runoff simulation in glaciated basins. This capability allows the model to accurately capture multiple flood peaks caused by snowmelt and glacial meltwater, making it particularly well-suited for mountainous regions like our study area. Projection analysis reveals that the study area is expected to experience an average temperature rise of 1–1.3 °C, with July and August temperatures increasing by 1.6–1.9 °C by 2040. Precipitation is projected to increase by 33–50% on average, with a more pronounced rise of 79–126% from March to May. By simulating discharge for the period 2024–2040 across the three river basins using these projections, we evaluated the risks of mudflows and floods. The results indicate a significant increase in discharge for the Isfiram-Sai, Shakhimardan, and Aravan-Sai rivers, particularly during spring and summer. For the Shakhimardan River, the largest discharge increases are expected from May to September, ranging from 139 to 218% of normal levels. For the Isfiram-Sai River, discharge is projected to increase by 126–202% in May and June compared to normal levels. For the Aravan-Sai River, discharge in May is expected to reach 168–209% of normal levels. Additionally, the study identifies a shift in the timing of flood peaks: the main flood peak is expected to move from July to June in the Isfiram-Sai River and from June to May in the Aravan-Sai River. This shift is attributed to earlier snowmelt and increased spring precipitation, which could have significant implications for water resource management. These changes indicate a high risk of mudflows and floods due to increased precipitation and accelerated glacier and snowmelt. Given these findings, proactive flood preparedness and adaptive measures are essential to mitigate the risks posed by these changing hydrological conditions.