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<p>Rapid urbanization and the transition of natural landscapes into urban built-up have significantly altered the thermal environment of cities. This study investigates the impact of land use/land cover (LU/LC) changes on the spatiotemporal dynamics of land surface temperature (LST) in Kollam Municipal Corporation (KMC), a coastal city in South India, from 2000 to 2024. Multi-temporal Landsat imagery was used for supervised classification of LU/LC and LST estimation using thermal infrared bands. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal variability of LST in relation to vegetation cover and built-up intensity, evaluated Urban Heat Island (UHI) intensity and its influence on thermal comfort using the Urban Thermal Field Variance Index (UTFVI) and Ecological Evaluation Index (EEI), and assessed statistical correlations between LST, NDVI, and NDBI to identify the key driving factors influencing thermal comfort in KMC. Between 2000 and 2024, the minimum LST increased by 4.95&#xa0;°C, the mean LST increased by 3.63&#xa0;°C, and the maximum LST increased by 2.07&#xa0;°C. Statistical analysis expects mean LST values for 2029 to be approximately 31.35&#xa0;°C and 32.14&#xa0;°C for 2034. A significant rise in urbanized regions and a notable decrease in vegetation were observed and are evident from the negative correlation between NDVI and LST (R² = 0.29 to 0.86) and the positive correlation between NDBI and LST (R² = 0.37 to 0.61), indicating vegetation reduction and urban agglomeration. The most frequent UTFVI category observed was “worst,” which increased from 31.96% in 2000 to 35% in 2024, indicating deterioration of thermal comfort. These findings illustrate the severity of UHI impacts and suggest the necessity of using green infrastructure, heat-resistant materials, and sustainable planning strategies to reduce urban thermal risks.</p> Graphical abstract <p>This graphical abstract portrays the transformation of natural landscapes into urbanized regions, which has significantly impacted the thermal comfort of Kollam Municipal Corporation, Kerala (India), from 2000 to 2024. The research utilizes geospatial analysis of Land Surface Temperature (LST) trends based on Landsat imagery, incorporating supervised classification, thermal analysis, correlation evaluations, and predictive modeling for the years 2029 and 2034. Thermal infrared bands, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and the Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) were employed to assess substantial urban expansion and vegetation loss. The intensity of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect and thermal comfort levels were evaluated using the Urban Thermal Field Variance Index (UTFVI) and the Ecological Evaluation Index (EEI). Results reveal a significant thermal increase: the lowest, mean, and maximum LSTs rose by 4.95&#xa0;°C, 3.63&#xa0;°C, and 2.07&#xa0;°C, respectively. Forecasts suggest that the average LST may reach 31.35&#xa0;°C by 2029 and 32.14&#xa0;°C by 2034, assuming current trends continue. A strong negative correlation was observed between NDVI and LST (R² = 0.29–0.86), while a strong positive correlation was found between NDBI and LST (R² = 0.37–0.61). The UTFVI analysis indicates rising thermal discomfort, with the proportion of the population exposed to the “worst” thermal conditions increasing from 31.96% in 2000 to 35% in 2024. These findings highlight the intensifying impact of urban heat islands and underscore the urgent need for sustainable urban planning and climate-responsive infrastructure.</p>

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Warming Landscapes and Urban Imprints: A 24-Year Study of Land and Climate Change in Kollam, Southwest India

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月21日

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  • Ajeesha A. Asiz,
  • P. S. Haritha,
  • Deepak Krishna,
  • Sunil Paul M. Menacherry,
  • Pratheesh C. Mammen,
  • Sruthi S. Nair,
  • M. S. Shyleshchandran

摘要

Rapid urbanization and the transition of natural landscapes into urban built-up have significantly altered the thermal environment of cities. This study investigates the impact of land use/land cover (LU/LC) changes on the spatiotemporal dynamics of land surface temperature (LST) in Kollam Municipal Corporation (KMC), a coastal city in South India, from 2000 to 2024. Multi-temporal Landsat imagery was used for supervised classification of LU/LC and LST estimation using thermal infrared bands. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal variability of LST in relation to vegetation cover and built-up intensity, evaluated Urban Heat Island (UHI) intensity and its influence on thermal comfort using the Urban Thermal Field Variance Index (UTFVI) and Ecological Evaluation Index (EEI), and assessed statistical correlations between LST, NDVI, and NDBI to identify the key driving factors influencing thermal comfort in KMC. Between 2000 and 2024, the minimum LST increased by 4.95 °C, the mean LST increased by 3.63 °C, and the maximum LST increased by 2.07 °C. Statistical analysis expects mean LST values for 2029 to be approximately 31.35 °C and 32.14 °C for 2034. A significant rise in urbanized regions and a notable decrease in vegetation were observed and are evident from the negative correlation between NDVI and LST (R² = 0.29 to 0.86) and the positive correlation between NDBI and LST (R² = 0.37 to 0.61), indicating vegetation reduction and urban agglomeration. The most frequent UTFVI category observed was “worst,” which increased from 31.96% in 2000 to 35% in 2024, indicating deterioration of thermal comfort. These findings illustrate the severity of UHI impacts and suggest the necessity of using green infrastructure, heat-resistant materials, and sustainable planning strategies to reduce urban thermal risks.

Graphical abstract

This graphical abstract portrays the transformation of natural landscapes into urbanized regions, which has significantly impacted the thermal comfort of Kollam Municipal Corporation, Kerala (India), from 2000 to 2024. The research utilizes geospatial analysis of Land Surface Temperature (LST) trends based on Landsat imagery, incorporating supervised classification, thermal analysis, correlation evaluations, and predictive modeling for the years 2029 and 2034. Thermal infrared bands, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and the Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) were employed to assess substantial urban expansion and vegetation loss. The intensity of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect and thermal comfort levels were evaluated using the Urban Thermal Field Variance Index (UTFVI) and the Ecological Evaluation Index (EEI). Results reveal a significant thermal increase: the lowest, mean, and maximum LSTs rose by 4.95 °C, 3.63 °C, and 2.07 °C, respectively. Forecasts suggest that the average LST may reach 31.35 °C by 2029 and 32.14 °C by 2034, assuming current trends continue. A strong negative correlation was observed between NDVI and LST (R² = 0.29–0.86), while a strong positive correlation was found between NDBI and LST (R² = 0.37–0.61). The UTFVI analysis indicates rising thermal discomfort, with the proportion of the population exposed to the “worst” thermal conditions increasing from 31.96% in 2000 to 35% in 2024. These findings highlight the intensifying impact of urban heat islands and underscore the urgent need for sustainable urban planning and climate-responsive infrastructure.