<p>Understanding seasonal precipitation variability in Mediterranean mountain regions is essential for drought risk management and climate adaptation. This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of seasonal precipitation in the Western Rif, Morocco, from 1980 to 2019, using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) across 17 meteorological stations. The analysis aims to assess precipitation trends, spatial homogeneity, and inter-station coherence through a suite of robust statistical techniques. Trend analysis based on the Mann–Kendall test indicated no statistically significant changes (<i>p</i> &gt; 0.05) in SPI across most stations, suggesting that variability is primarily driven by interannual fluctuations rather than monotonic long-term trends. However, Sen’s slope estimates revealed weak tendencies toward drying or wetting at specific locations. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) explained 82.8%, 63.4%, and 50.0% of total variance in autumn, winter, and spring, respectively. K-Means clustering consistently identified three station groups per season, reflecting a pronounced inland–coastal gradient shaped by topography and synoptic-scale circulation. Boxplot distributions and Kruskal–Wallis tests confirmed high spatial homogeneity in winter and spring, contrasting with greater dispersion in autumn. Pearson correlation analysis further demonstrated strong inter-station coherence in winter (<i>r</i> &gt; 0.8 in several cases), which weakened markedly in transitional seasons due to localized convective activity and mesoscale atmospheric instabilities. These findings highlight the dual influence of large-scale atmospheric dynamics and local physiographic factors on seasonal precipitation behavior. The proposed integrative framework enhances the diagnosis of regional hydroclimatic variability and supports more effective, risk-informed water resource planning under changing climate conditions.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p> <p>This Work Presents a Comprehensive Multiscale Analysis of Seasonal Precipitation Variability in the Western Rif Region of Morocco Over the Period 1980–2019. Using SPI Values Derived from 17 Meteorological Stations, the Study Applies an Integrated Statistical Framework, Combining the Mann-Kendall Trend Test, Sen’s Slope Estimator, Principal Component Analysis, K-Means Clustering, and non-parametric Tests Such as Kruskal-Wallis and Pearson Correlation, To Diagnose Temporal Trends and Spatial Rainfall Patterns. The Analysis Identifies Strong Seasonal Contrasts, with Coherent Winter Precipitation Behavior and Fragmented Autumnal Patterns. Spatial Clustering Reveals a Persistent inland–coastal Gradient Shaped by Atlantic Advection, Topography, and Mesoscale Circulation. These Findings Advance Understanding of Hydroclimatic Behavior in Complex Mediterranean Terrains. In Light of the Current Spatial Heterogeneity of Drought and Wetness Signals, the Study Highlights the Need for Adaptive Planning, Including Flexible Agricultural Strategies, Regional Water Transfer Schemes, and Localized Drought Risk Management Tailored To Seasonal Variability</p>

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Unraveling Seasonal Rainfall Dynamics in the Western Rif, Morocco (1980–2019): A Multivariate SPI-Based Analysis

  • Ayoub Al Mashoudi,
  • Adil Akallouch,
  • Mohamed Arraji,
  • Ahmed Samlali,
  • Aqil Tariq

摘要

Understanding seasonal precipitation variability in Mediterranean mountain regions is essential for drought risk management and climate adaptation. This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of seasonal precipitation in the Western Rif, Morocco, from 1980 to 2019, using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) across 17 meteorological stations. The analysis aims to assess precipitation trends, spatial homogeneity, and inter-station coherence through a suite of robust statistical techniques. Trend analysis based on the Mann–Kendall test indicated no statistically significant changes (p > 0.05) in SPI across most stations, suggesting that variability is primarily driven by interannual fluctuations rather than monotonic long-term trends. However, Sen’s slope estimates revealed weak tendencies toward drying or wetting at specific locations. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) explained 82.8%, 63.4%, and 50.0% of total variance in autumn, winter, and spring, respectively. K-Means clustering consistently identified three station groups per season, reflecting a pronounced inland–coastal gradient shaped by topography and synoptic-scale circulation. Boxplot distributions and Kruskal–Wallis tests confirmed high spatial homogeneity in winter and spring, contrasting with greater dispersion in autumn. Pearson correlation analysis further demonstrated strong inter-station coherence in winter (r > 0.8 in several cases), which weakened markedly in transitional seasons due to localized convective activity and mesoscale atmospheric instabilities. These findings highlight the dual influence of large-scale atmospheric dynamics and local physiographic factors on seasonal precipitation behavior. The proposed integrative framework enhances the diagnosis of regional hydroclimatic variability and supports more effective, risk-informed water resource planning under changing climate conditions.

Graphical Abstract

This Work Presents a Comprehensive Multiscale Analysis of Seasonal Precipitation Variability in the Western Rif Region of Morocco Over the Period 1980–2019. Using SPI Values Derived from 17 Meteorological Stations, the Study Applies an Integrated Statistical Framework, Combining the Mann-Kendall Trend Test, Sen’s Slope Estimator, Principal Component Analysis, K-Means Clustering, and non-parametric Tests Such as Kruskal-Wallis and Pearson Correlation, To Diagnose Temporal Trends and Spatial Rainfall Patterns. The Analysis Identifies Strong Seasonal Contrasts, with Coherent Winter Precipitation Behavior and Fragmented Autumnal Patterns. Spatial Clustering Reveals a Persistent inland–coastal Gradient Shaped by Atlantic Advection, Topography, and Mesoscale Circulation. These Findings Advance Understanding of Hydroclimatic Behavior in Complex Mediterranean Terrains. In Light of the Current Spatial Heterogeneity of Drought and Wetness Signals, the Study Highlights the Need for Adaptive Planning, Including Flexible Agricultural Strategies, Regional Water Transfer Schemes, and Localized Drought Risk Management Tailored To Seasonal Variability