Scholarlink

<p>Africa is highly susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change, particularly changes in hydroclimatic conditions. Assessing the impacts that could be reduced by limiting global warming is therefore crucial to strengthening adaptation to climate change, especially in Central Africa, known for its rich biodiversity along with the diversity of its ecosystems. In that perspective, the purpose of the present study is to assess the projected impact of increased global warming on the hydroclimatology of Central Africa, based on an ensemble-mean of high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations integrated into the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-CORE). One of the novelties of this research lies in its methodological strength, utilizing state-of-the-art RCM outputs to firstly investigate on the projected changes in some key hydroclimatic variables (e.g., precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, soil moisture and surface runoff), under two representative concentration pathways scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) during the near and far future. Results reveal that an increase in radiative forcing to the higher RCP8.5 scenario, could induce a robust increase of up to about 3&#xa0;°C in temperature toward the end of the twenty-first century. This would contribute to a moderate decrease of around 30% in the precipitation regime, coupled with a stronger decrease in surface runoff over southern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Congo, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), northern Angola and eastern Zambia. Moreover, under the effect of increased global warming from the RCP2.6 to the RCP8.5 scenario, some countries such as Chad, Cameroon, Central African Republic, DRC and Sudan would experience a significant increase of up to 26% in potential evapotranspiration, coupled with a significant decrease of up to 40% in soil moisture, which is likely to exacerbate water stress and drought conditions. Results also showed that limiting global warming to the lower RCP2.6 scenario, would avoid an expansion of up to 25% in the spatial extent of areas characterised by drier climatic conditions, which would have major implications for ecosystems, agriculture and water availability in the affected countries. The insights provided by this research therefore contribute to ongoing efforts to improve our understanding on the potential impacts of global warming on the hydroclimatology of an under-studied subregion such as Central Africa.</p> Graphical Abstract <p>The aim of this study is to assess the projected impact of increased global warming from the low- to the high-emission scenarios on the hydroclimatology of Central Africa, during the near- and late- twenty-first century. For that puspose, the projected changes in precipitation, temperature, soil moisture content, atmospheric water demand and surface runoff, with an emphasis on changes in the spatial extent of aridity categories, were analysed, based on an ensemble-mean of high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations integrated into the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-CORE), under two representative concentration pathways scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The atmospheric water demand was computed as potential evapotranspiration (PET) by considering the Hamon's equation, and the analysis of aridity was performed by using the aridity index developed by De Martonne. Results reveal that an increase in radiative forcing to the higher RCP8.5 scenario, could induce a robust increase of about 3°C in temperature, contributing to a moderate decrease of around 30% in the precipitation regime, coupled with a stronger decrease in surface runoff over some Central African countries. Moreover, under the effect of increased global warming from the RCP2.6 to the RCP8.5 scenario, some countries such as Chad, Cameroon, Central African Republic, DRC and Sudan would experience a significant increase of up to 26% in potential evapotranspiration, coupled with a significant decrease of up to 40% in soil moisture, which is likely to exacerbate water stress and drought conditions. Results also showed that limiting global warming to the lower RCP2.6 scenario, would avoid an expansion of up to 25% in the spatial extent of areas characterised by drier climatic conditions, which would have major implications for ecosystems, agriculture and water availability in the affected countries.</p> <p></p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Potential Impact of Increased Global Warming on the Hydroclimatology of Central Africa during the twenty-first Century

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月4日

查看全文
  • Abdon K. Dessacka,
  • Thierry C. Fotso-Nguemo,
  • Moustapha Tall,
  • Zéphirin D. Yepdo,
  • Steven Chouto,
  • Bienvenue D. Dikwa,
  • Crépin K. Komelo,
  • Rodric M. Nonki,
  • Ismaila Diallo,
  • Arona Diedhiou,
  • David Monkam,
  • Hamid Sana

摘要

Africa is highly susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change, particularly changes in hydroclimatic conditions. Assessing the impacts that could be reduced by limiting global warming is therefore crucial to strengthening adaptation to climate change, especially in Central Africa, known for its rich biodiversity along with the diversity of its ecosystems. In that perspective, the purpose of the present study is to assess the projected impact of increased global warming on the hydroclimatology of Central Africa, based on an ensemble-mean of high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations integrated into the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-CORE). One of the novelties of this research lies in its methodological strength, utilizing state-of-the-art RCM outputs to firstly investigate on the projected changes in some key hydroclimatic variables (e.g., precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, soil moisture and surface runoff), under two representative concentration pathways scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) during the near and far future. Results reveal that an increase in radiative forcing to the higher RCP8.5 scenario, could induce a robust increase of up to about 3 °C in temperature toward the end of the twenty-first century. This would contribute to a moderate decrease of around 30% in the precipitation regime, coupled with a stronger decrease in surface runoff over southern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Congo, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), northern Angola and eastern Zambia. Moreover, under the effect of increased global warming from the RCP2.6 to the RCP8.5 scenario, some countries such as Chad, Cameroon, Central African Republic, DRC and Sudan would experience a significant increase of up to 26% in potential evapotranspiration, coupled with a significant decrease of up to 40% in soil moisture, which is likely to exacerbate water stress and drought conditions. Results also showed that limiting global warming to the lower RCP2.6 scenario, would avoid an expansion of up to 25% in the spatial extent of areas characterised by drier climatic conditions, which would have major implications for ecosystems, agriculture and water availability in the affected countries. The insights provided by this research therefore contribute to ongoing efforts to improve our understanding on the potential impacts of global warming on the hydroclimatology of an under-studied subregion such as Central Africa.

Graphical Abstract

The aim of this study is to assess the projected impact of increased global warming from the low- to the high-emission scenarios on the hydroclimatology of Central Africa, during the near- and late- twenty-first century. For that puspose, the projected changes in precipitation, temperature, soil moisture content, atmospheric water demand and surface runoff, with an emphasis on changes in the spatial extent of aridity categories, were analysed, based on an ensemble-mean of high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations integrated into the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-CORE), under two representative concentration pathways scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The atmospheric water demand was computed as potential evapotranspiration (PET) by considering the Hamon's equation, and the analysis of aridity was performed by using the aridity index developed by De Martonne. Results reveal that an increase in radiative forcing to the higher RCP8.5 scenario, could induce a robust increase of about 3°C in temperature, contributing to a moderate decrease of around 30% in the precipitation regime, coupled with a stronger decrease in surface runoff over some Central African countries. Moreover, under the effect of increased global warming from the RCP2.6 to the RCP8.5 scenario, some countries such as Chad, Cameroon, Central African Republic, DRC and Sudan would experience a significant increase of up to 26% in potential evapotranspiration, coupled with a significant decrease of up to 40% in soil moisture, which is likely to exacerbate water stress and drought conditions. Results also showed that limiting global warming to the lower RCP2.6 scenario, would avoid an expansion of up to 25% in the spatial extent of areas characterised by drier climatic conditions, which would have major implications for ecosystems, agriculture and water availability in the affected countries.