<p>The need for a robust food security framework in India requires assessing the effects of air quality and weather on crop yields, while adopting practices such as choosing suitable varieties, adjusting planting schedules, and improving irrigation to reduce adverse impacts. In this study, a long-term assessment of the impact of weather, Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR), soil moisture (SM), and Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) on historical rice production was conducted across various Agroclimatic Zones in India from 1998 to 2019. A statistical model was developed for this purpose, achieving an exceptional accuracy of 94.9% for rice crop during the Kharif season in India. The findings indicate that the highest negative impacts of rainfall, FAPAR, and AOD on rice production were observed in the EPH region. However, the minimum and maximum temperatures had the most adverse effects in the MGP and GPH regions. Rainfall exhibited an almost negligible impact on rice yield during the studied period. Relative humidity (RH), FAPAR, and SM were generally favorable for rice yield across most of Agroclimatic Zones during the historical period. India experienced an average annual decline in rice yields of − 4.09%, − 1.11%, − 0.11%, and − 0.73% due to adverse fluctuations in maximum and minimum temperatures, rainfall, and aerosol levels, respectively. In contrast, RH, FAPAR, and SM contributed to yield increases of 0.56%, 0.08%, and 1.17% per year, respectively. Overall, the model indicates that Indian rice production declined by an average of − 3.93% annually between 1998 and 2019, due to the combined impact of weather/FAPAR/SM/AOD fluctuations. The combined effects of these factors led to an average annual decline in rice production in the states of Odisha, Maharashtra, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh. The limitation of this study is the absence of future projections for AOD, which are essential to evaluate its potential impacts across diverse agroclimatic zones.</p> Graphical Abstract <p>The graphical abstract visually represents the development and assessment of a rice yield prediction model with 94.9% accuracy under climate changing scenario using historical datasets from 1998 to 2019. The central focus to analyze impact under changing climate on the rice crop yield over India with various Agroclimatic Zones. The outer circular section highlights the key influencing factors on rice yield, including weather variables, Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR), soil moisture (SM), and aerosol optical depth (AOD). These factors are represented by icons indicating rainfall, temperature, radiation, and scientific observation. The model integrates long-term impact assessment of these environmental and atmospheric parameters on rice crops yields across different Agroclimatic Zones. This approach helps in understanding the spatial and temporal variations in rice production due to climate variability and increasing anthropogenic aerosols. The significance of meteorological and environmental factors in determining rice yield. This holistic approach for agricultural rice yield monitoring under changing climate, benefiting policymakers and stakeholders.</p>