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<p>This study aimed to evaluate the trends of agricultural drought over time and assess its socioeconomic effects in the Tekeze watershed. A combination of multiple data sources was employed, including the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), interviews, and field observations. Additionally, data on rainfall recorded at weather stations and crop yields were utilized to validate the accuracy of the EVI satellite data. To assess this validity, a random forest regression model was implemented. The analysis revealed a strong correlation between EVI and rainfall measurements (<i>r</i> = 0.92), which was further supported by examining selected crop yields, showing R² values of 0.23 for teff and 0.33 for sorghum. Temporal analysis indicated that August and September were peak periods for vegetation health, with EVI values ranging from 0.17 in 2015 to 0.24 in 2007. Spatially, nearly all land in the study area (99.76 − 100%) experienced drought impacts, with no years completely free from drought between 2000 and 2024. Notably, the years 2005, 2009, 2015, and 2023 were marked by severe drought conditions. Primary factors contributing to drought included insufficient rainfall, deforestation, climate change, topography, declining soil fertility, population growth, conflict, locust infestations, snowfall, and flooding. The effects of drought in the region were profound, leading to increased rates of pandemic diseases, malnutrition, dehydration, waterborne illnesses, displacement, higher school dropout rates, temporary livestock migration, crop diseases, wildfires, water scarcity, fodder loss, soil erosion, desertification, and resource conflicts. In response, the government and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) implemented a range of interventions, including emergency food aid, water management projects, agricultural support, and long-term drought mitigation programs aimed at enhancing resilience. However, the effectiveness of these efforts has been undermined by ongoing conflicts and recurring environmental shocks. Therefore, an integrated approach is essential to address both immediate and underlying vulnerabilities associated with drought and to enhance resilience in the area.</p>

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Understanding Drought: Agricultural and Socioeconomic Effects in Tekeze Watershed, Northern Ethiopia

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月15日

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  • Yonas Tesfay,
  • Simachew Bantigegn,
  • Mehretie Belay,
  • Hamza A. Halwani,
  • Sanju Purohit,
  • Mohamed Elhag

摘要

This study aimed to evaluate the trends of agricultural drought over time and assess its socioeconomic effects in the Tekeze watershed. A combination of multiple data sources was employed, including the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), interviews, and field observations. Additionally, data on rainfall recorded at weather stations and crop yields were utilized to validate the accuracy of the EVI satellite data. To assess this validity, a random forest regression model was implemented. The analysis revealed a strong correlation between EVI and rainfall measurements (r = 0.92), which was further supported by examining selected crop yields, showing R² values of 0.23 for teff and 0.33 for sorghum. Temporal analysis indicated that August and September were peak periods for vegetation health, with EVI values ranging from 0.17 in 2015 to 0.24 in 2007. Spatially, nearly all land in the study area (99.76 − 100%) experienced drought impacts, with no years completely free from drought between 2000 and 2024. Notably, the years 2005, 2009, 2015, and 2023 were marked by severe drought conditions. Primary factors contributing to drought included insufficient rainfall, deforestation, climate change, topography, declining soil fertility, population growth, conflict, locust infestations, snowfall, and flooding. The effects of drought in the region were profound, leading to increased rates of pandemic diseases, malnutrition, dehydration, waterborne illnesses, displacement, higher school dropout rates, temporary livestock migration, crop diseases, wildfires, water scarcity, fodder loss, soil erosion, desertification, and resource conflicts. In response, the government and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) implemented a range of interventions, including emergency food aid, water management projects, agricultural support, and long-term drought mitigation programs aimed at enhancing resilience. However, the effectiveness of these efforts has been undermined by ongoing conflicts and recurring environmental shocks. Therefore, an integrated approach is essential to address both immediate and underlying vulnerabilities associated with drought and to enhance resilience in the area.