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<p>In recent decades, wind waves in the Indian Ocean have undergone significant variations due to climate change. This study examines the long-term wind-wave climate along the southwest of India, encompassing Kerala, spanning from its northern to southern tip (10 locations), based on 83 years of reanalysis wave data from 1940 to 2022. Utilizing ERA-5 reanalysis wave data, the study evaluates inter-annual and decadal variations in significant wave height (Hs), focusing on mean, maximum, and 90th percentile values. The overall 90th percentile Hs trend is increasing during the period 1940–2022 at all locations. Moreover, the analysis reveals a consistent upward trend in mean Hs across the entire coastline. The highest increase in trend is observed at location 8, close to the southern end. Specifically, the southern regions of the Kerala coast generally exhibit the highest trend in maximum Hs and 90th percentile values, indicating a greater vulnerability to extreme wave events. Seasonal analysis underscores that the southern coast shows lower mean Hs during summer compared to the northernmost region, but dominates in other seasons. The key findings of the seasonal trend analysis are a relatively higher increasing trend in the southern region at locations 5–10 during the summer season and intensified wave activity during autumn. The increase in maximum Hs trends during autumn is directly attributed to the increased cyclone frequency and intensity during this season. Furthermore, the study identifies complex spatial patterns, with some areas experiencing notably lower Hs, potentially influenced by offshore geographical features such as the Lakshadweep Islands.</p>

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Wave Climate of Kerala Coast: An 83-Year ERA-5 Study of Trends and Seasonality

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月2日

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  • P. Ananthu,
  • P. R. Shanas,
  • Sandhra Komath,
  • K. K. Sivakrishnan,
  • V. Sanil Kumar

摘要

In recent decades, wind waves in the Indian Ocean have undergone significant variations due to climate change. This study examines the long-term wind-wave climate along the southwest of India, encompassing Kerala, spanning from its northern to southern tip (10 locations), based on 83 years of reanalysis wave data from 1940 to 2022. Utilizing ERA-5 reanalysis wave data, the study evaluates inter-annual and decadal variations in significant wave height (Hs), focusing on mean, maximum, and 90th percentile values. The overall 90th percentile Hs trend is increasing during the period 1940–2022 at all locations. Moreover, the analysis reveals a consistent upward trend in mean Hs across the entire coastline. The highest increase in trend is observed at location 8, close to the southern end. Specifically, the southern regions of the Kerala coast generally exhibit the highest trend in maximum Hs and 90th percentile values, indicating a greater vulnerability to extreme wave events. Seasonal analysis underscores that the southern coast shows lower mean Hs during summer compared to the northernmost region, but dominates in other seasons. The key findings of the seasonal trend analysis are a relatively higher increasing trend in the southern region at locations 5–10 during the summer season and intensified wave activity during autumn. The increase in maximum Hs trends during autumn is directly attributed to the increased cyclone frequency and intensity during this season. Furthermore, the study identifies complex spatial patterns, with some areas experiencing notably lower Hs, potentially influenced by offshore geographical features such as the Lakshadweep Islands.