Determining the Success of China’s Forest Conservation Policy: A Cost–Benefit Analysis of China’s Natural Forest Conservation Program

To promote vegetation conservation and greening of the Earth, nations around the world have invested heavily in ecological conservation programs such as China’s Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP), which covered 1.5 × 10⁶ km² in 17 provinces. However, it’s uncertain whether this investment will ultimately pay off. To answer this question, we developed a novel method of quantifying costs and benefits that accounts for more of the costs associated with ecological restoration, thereby letting us calculate the net benefit. Our results showed that the NFCP provided huge net benefits, at an estimated 2.9 × 10¹² RMB·yr^− 1, versus a cost of 0.9 × 10¹² RMB·yr^− 1. The return on investment of the NFCP is therefore more than 3 to 1. However, the subsidy to residents affected by the NFCP was only 4 × 10⁹ RMB·yr^− 1, accounting for less than 0.5% of the cost. This means that residents of the areas affected by the program bore more than 99.5% of the cost. As the NFCP demonstrates, China’s green policy has a high net benefit overall, and this suggests that ecological restoration efforts can have a positive ecological and economic impact. To restore equity and achieve both ecological restoration and poverty alleviation, we recommend that governments share the benefits of ecological restoration with those who are most strongly affected.