Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Groundwater Recharge in Prachinburi–Sakaeo Groundwater Basin by Integrating the CA–Markov Model with the WetSpass Model

This study explores the impact of land use changes on groundwater recharge in the Prachinburi–Sakaeo basin, Thailand. This region is pivotal for the growth of the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC), encompassing urban, industrial, and tourism sectors. The research emphasizes the influence of land use dynamics on groundwater recharge within this basin. Employing the CA-Markov and WetSpass models, the study simulates six land use scenarios and their corresponding groundwater recharge rates projected for 2072. The results reveal significant spatial variations in land use due to urbanization and a general decline in groundwater recharge rates. Scenarios with lower levels of urbanization show the most substantial decrease. To counteract this, conservation zones have been established to preserve watershed forests. Consequently, the projected average groundwater recharge rates for 2072 are estimated at 202.82 mm/year under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 77.94 mm/year under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The study identifies areas in the western, central, and eastern regions as having critically low groundwater recharge rates (decreased below 200 mm/year in almost all scenarios). This comprehensive analysis is vital for informed urban planning and sustainable water resource management, crucial to maintaining the region's environmental health.