<p>The fluctuations in the ecosystem service value (ESV) caused by different land use change patterns are the keys to revealing the internal mechanism of regional ecological environment evolution and predicting its ecological effects. Taking the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (Ningxia) as a case study, five land use change patterns (stable, early, late, recurrent, and continuous) were determined on the basis of the three periods of land use data from 2003 to 2023 (one period per 10 years). Then the unit area value equivalent factor method was used to calculate the ecosystem service value of the study, and the key land use change patterns that caused the ESV fluctuations in Ningxia were discussed. The results show that (1) the dynamics of grassland and cropland are the keys to the main body of land use change patterns in Ningxia. (2) the main body of ESV stock in Ningxia has a stable change pattern, and the fluctuations in ESV are caused by the other four patterns, the increase in ESV was mainly attributed mainly to the early change pattern, and the decrease in ESV was driven mainly by the repeated and continuous change patterns. (3) regulation services, especially climate regulation (CR) and hydrological regulation (HR), are the most critical service types affecting ESV changes in Ningxia, and their value evolution is predominantly governed by specific land use conversion pathways. Therefore, the results of this study can provide a scientific reference for ecological security management in Northwestern China and the upper reaches of the Yellow River.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p>