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<p>Despite substantial advancements in the quantification of ecosystem services, research on the dynamic interactions and spatial mismatches between supply and demand under future scenarios remains insufficient, significantly impedes the effectiveness of risk assessment and management. Here, we present an integrated risk assessment of ecosystem service supply-demand dynamics for carbon storage, soil retention, and water yield on the Tibetan Plateau from 2000 to 2050, under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Our results indicate that the supply of carbon storage, soil retention, and water yield services will increase by 1.05%, 4.78% and 3.27%, respectively, under high-emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5). However, the demand for these services under the same scenario shows a declining trend, with the demand for carbon storage and water yield expected to decrease by 11.66% and 9.37% by 2050, particularly after 2020. High-risk supply-demand mismatches are concentrated in the northeastern and southwestern regions, but these high-risk areas are projected to decrease by 15,727&#xa0;km² under the SSP1-1.9 scenario, transitioning to medium and low-risk areas. These findings challenge previous assumptions of persistent ecosystem risk and highlight the potential for scenario-based policy interventions to reduce ecological vulnerability. Our study provides a quantitative framework for future supply-demand risks and offers scientific support for adaptive ecosystem management and regional land-use planning in the face of climate change.</p>

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Supply-Demand Risk of Ecosystem Services in the Tibetan Plateau Under Future Scenarios

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月15日

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  • Jianghua Liu,
  • Yanjie Zhang,
  • Yuejun Liu,
  • Muliang Yu,
  • Jianghao Cheng,
  • Mingxue Xiang

摘要

Despite substantial advancements in the quantification of ecosystem services, research on the dynamic interactions and spatial mismatches between supply and demand under future scenarios remains insufficient, significantly impedes the effectiveness of risk assessment and management. Here, we present an integrated risk assessment of ecosystem service supply-demand dynamics for carbon storage, soil retention, and water yield on the Tibetan Plateau from 2000 to 2050, under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Our results indicate that the supply of carbon storage, soil retention, and water yield services will increase by 1.05%, 4.78% and 3.27%, respectively, under high-emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5). However, the demand for these services under the same scenario shows a declining trend, with the demand for carbon storage and water yield expected to decrease by 11.66% and 9.37% by 2050, particularly after 2020. High-risk supply-demand mismatches are concentrated in the northeastern and southwestern regions, but these high-risk areas are projected to decrease by 15,727 km² under the SSP1-1.9 scenario, transitioning to medium and low-risk areas. These findings challenge previous assumptions of persistent ecosystem risk and highlight the potential for scenario-based policy interventions to reduce ecological vulnerability. Our study provides a quantitative framework for future supply-demand risks and offers scientific support for adaptive ecosystem management and regional land-use planning in the face of climate change.