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<p>A scientific and accurate assessment of soil heavy metal risks is fundamental to developing future control measures. This study developed an integrated probabilistic risk assessment model for soil heavy metals by combining source apportionment, Monte Carlo simulation, the potential ecological risk index, and health risk assessment models. This hybrid framework enabled a refined and source-oriented risk evaluation in a concentrated agate industrial area. The results showed that the soil heavy metals in the agate industry concentration area were primarily derived from industrial sources of agate processing (30.21%), agate dyeing and natural sources (21.80%), traffic emissions sources (21.41%), agricultural sources (14.98%) and atmospheric deposition sources (11.60%). Soil heavy metals were in medium ecological risk, agricultural sources and Cd should be the primary control elements affecting ecological risk. Health risk assessment indicated that soil heavy metals posed carcinogenic risks to adults, and both carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks to children, with the latter being more vulnerable. The oral ingestion pathway was identified as the primary exposure pathway. Furthermore, the combined source of agate dyeing and natural sources, along with elements Cr and Co, were prioritized as the key targets for risk control.</p>

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Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Soil Heavy Metals in an Agate Industry Concentration Area Based on Different Sources

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月11日

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  • Haodong Wang,
  • Yuejiao Liu,
  • Shanshan Feng,
  • Jia Fu,
  • Ye Li

摘要

A scientific and accurate assessment of soil heavy metal risks is fundamental to developing future control measures. This study developed an integrated probabilistic risk assessment model for soil heavy metals by combining source apportionment, Monte Carlo simulation, the potential ecological risk index, and health risk assessment models. This hybrid framework enabled a refined and source-oriented risk evaluation in a concentrated agate industrial area. The results showed that the soil heavy metals in the agate industry concentration area were primarily derived from industrial sources of agate processing (30.21%), agate dyeing and natural sources (21.80%), traffic emissions sources (21.41%), agricultural sources (14.98%) and atmospheric deposition sources (11.60%). Soil heavy metals were in medium ecological risk, agricultural sources and Cd should be the primary control elements affecting ecological risk. Health risk assessment indicated that soil heavy metals posed carcinogenic risks to adults, and both carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks to children, with the latter being more vulnerable. The oral ingestion pathway was identified as the primary exposure pathway. Furthermore, the combined source of agate dyeing and natural sources, along with elements Cr and Co, were prioritized as the key targets for risk control.