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<p>Climate change is intensifying global heat exposure, posing growing risks to ecosystems and human health. This study assesses historical and future heat stress trends in Tehran, applying the EPA heat-stress framework to minimum summer temperatures (June–August) from 1960 to 2020, and distinguishing urban heat-island effects using both urban and peripheral stations. Future projections for 2040–2060 and 2080–2100 were generated using the CanESM2 model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways with statistical downscaling. Heat stress indices, including WBGT and the NOAA Heat Index, were calculated to quantify future exposure. Minimum summer temperatures increased substantially during 1960–2020, rising by ~ 78% relative to the baseline mean, compared with a 1.7% increase in Tmax, indicating faster warming during nighttime. Projections show a continued rise in extreme heat frequency and severity, with WBGT and Heat Index values surpassing established caution thresholds during peak summer months. These findings emphasize the urgent need for climate-responsive public-health and urban-planning strategies in Tehran, particularly given rapid urbanization and limited green infrastructure. The study provides evidence-based insights to support city-level heat-risk management and long-term adaptation planning.</p>

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Climate Change and Heat Stress: Implications for Human Health and Future Projections

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月5日

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  • Tarkan Alisoltani,
  • Majid Shafiepour Motlagh,
  • Khosro Ashrafi,
  • Behzad Ghiasi

摘要

Climate change is intensifying global heat exposure, posing growing risks to ecosystems and human health. This study assesses historical and future heat stress trends in Tehran, applying the EPA heat-stress framework to minimum summer temperatures (June–August) from 1960 to 2020, and distinguishing urban heat-island effects using both urban and peripheral stations. Future projections for 2040–2060 and 2080–2100 were generated using the CanESM2 model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways with statistical downscaling. Heat stress indices, including WBGT and the NOAA Heat Index, were calculated to quantify future exposure. Minimum summer temperatures increased substantially during 1960–2020, rising by ~ 78% relative to the baseline mean, compared with a 1.7% increase in Tmax, indicating faster warming during nighttime. Projections show a continued rise in extreme heat frequency and severity, with WBGT and Heat Index values surpassing established caution thresholds during peak summer months. These findings emphasize the urgent need for climate-responsive public-health and urban-planning strategies in Tehran, particularly given rapid urbanization and limited green infrastructure. The study provides evidence-based insights to support city-level heat-risk management and long-term adaptation planning.