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<p>The declining precipitation and widening gap between water supply and demand—particularly in agriculture—have disrupted the water balance in the Urmia Lake watershed. This study used the MODSIM model to simulate three scenarios for future water resource management until 2041: a 40% reduction in agricultural use (S1), reuse of treated domestic wastewater (S2), and increased water demand due to population and agricultural growth (S3). Results showed that monthly inflow and storage volumes for Urmia Lake would change by 22.8%, 8.4%, and − 38% respectively, while evaporation rates would shift by 17.5%, 5.9%, and − 19.8%, highlighting S1 as the most effective scenario. Using SWOT and QSPM models, strategies were evaluated and prioritized. With IFE and EFE scores of 2.986 and 3.068, a need for conservative (WO) strategies was identified to leverage opportunities and mitigate weaknesses. The top strategy, scoring 5.61 in the QSPM model, was “modifying crop patterns and using high-yield, water-efficient cultivars through demand management.” This study offers a strategic outlook to support sustainable water management and informed decision-making in the Urmia Lake watershed.</p>

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Optimizing Water Resource Management: Integrating MODSIM Simulation with SWOT-QSPM Analysis (Case Study: Lake Urmia)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月25日

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  • Hasti Zeinali,
  • Seyed Ali Jozi,
  • Saeid Malmasi,
  • Sahar Rezaian

摘要

The declining precipitation and widening gap between water supply and demand—particularly in agriculture—have disrupted the water balance in the Urmia Lake watershed. This study used the MODSIM model to simulate three scenarios for future water resource management until 2041: a 40% reduction in agricultural use (S1), reuse of treated domestic wastewater (S2), and increased water demand due to population and agricultural growth (S3). Results showed that monthly inflow and storage volumes for Urmia Lake would change by 22.8%, 8.4%, and − 38% respectively, while evaporation rates would shift by 17.5%, 5.9%, and − 19.8%, highlighting S1 as the most effective scenario. Using SWOT and QSPM models, strategies were evaluated and prioritized. With IFE and EFE scores of 2.986 and 3.068, a need for conservative (WO) strategies was identified to leverage opportunities and mitigate weaknesses. The top strategy, scoring 5.61 in the QSPM model, was “modifying crop patterns and using high-yield, water-efficient cultivars through demand management.” This study offers a strategic outlook to support sustainable water management and informed decision-making in the Urmia Lake watershed.