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<p>Urban ecosystem services provide environmental and socio-economic benefits; however, these services are not properly considered during policy-making and urban development processes in developing countries. Satellite images and published Ecosystem Service Value (ESV) coefficients with the benefits transfer method were used to estimate ESV in response to Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULC). We used an Artificial Neural Network-based cellular automaton (ANN-CA) model to simulate LULC in 2035 and 2050 based on LULC data from 1990 to 2020. Predicted results reveal that agricultural land, barren land, vegetation, and water bodies are likely to decline by 495, 13.33, 53.27, and 7.73 hectares, respectively, between 2020 and 2050. However, built-up areas are expected to increase by 107.33 hectares owing to urbanization, industrialization, and economic growth. The ESV results show that vegetation and agriculture account for 70% of the total ESV which makes them the leading LULC categories. The overall ESV could fall by 8.95 US$ ×10<sup>6</sup>/year, primarily due to a decline in agricultural land, waterbodies, and vegetation. This study also identified the contribution of individual Ecosystem Services (ES) functions to the overall ESV. In 2020 and 2050, the ratio of provisioning, regulating, and supporting services to overall ESV is expected to decline from 19.95% to 8.77%, 39.60% to 25.60%, and 28.80% to 13.63%, respectively. On the contrary, the proportion of cultural services to total ESV will rise from 11.66% in 2020 to 52% in 2050, illustrating the importance of non-material ecological benefits such as recreation and tourism. The approach used in this study which integrates LULC with ES valuation will assist policymakers and urban planners with current and future sustainable land management.</p>

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Assessing the Impacts of Future Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Ecosystem Services in a Coastal City of Bangladesh Using an Integrated Approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月23日

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  • Md Shafiqul Islam,
  • Tania Yeasmin,
  • Md Shahriar Bulbul Tonmoy,
  • Raihan Sorker

摘要

Urban ecosystem services provide environmental and socio-economic benefits; however, these services are not properly considered during policy-making and urban development processes in developing countries. Satellite images and published Ecosystem Service Value (ESV) coefficients with the benefits transfer method were used to estimate ESV in response to Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULC). We used an Artificial Neural Network-based cellular automaton (ANN-CA) model to simulate LULC in 2035 and 2050 based on LULC data from 1990 to 2020. Predicted results reveal that agricultural land, barren land, vegetation, and water bodies are likely to decline by 495, 13.33, 53.27, and 7.73 hectares, respectively, between 2020 and 2050. However, built-up areas are expected to increase by 107.33 hectares owing to urbanization, industrialization, and economic growth. The ESV results show that vegetation and agriculture account for 70% of the total ESV which makes them the leading LULC categories. The overall ESV could fall by 8.95 US$ ×106/year, primarily due to a decline in agricultural land, waterbodies, and vegetation. This study also identified the contribution of individual Ecosystem Services (ES) functions to the overall ESV. In 2020 and 2050, the ratio of provisioning, regulating, and supporting services to overall ESV is expected to decline from 19.95% to 8.77%, 39.60% to 25.60%, and 28.80% to 13.63%, respectively. On the contrary, the proportion of cultural services to total ESV will rise from 11.66% in 2020 to 52% in 2050, illustrating the importance of non-material ecological benefits such as recreation and tourism. The approach used in this study which integrates LULC with ES valuation will assist policymakers and urban planners with current and future sustainable land management.