Constructing and Evaluating Predictors for Data-Driven PM2.5 Forecasting Models
摘要
Data-driven methods for air quality forecasting are beneficial to early-warning of air pollution, especially in small and medium-sized cities. In this study, the Prophet model is used for extracting time-related features, such as trend, annual cycles, and weekly cycles, from the PM2.5 series, and the gradient boosting regression trees (GBM) and long short-term memory networks (LSTM) are used to build forecasting models utilizing predictors including time-related features. All predictors are grouped into time-related features, antecedent air pollutant concentration, and meteorological parameters, and permutation feature importance (PFI) is used for measuring the importance of these feature groups. A series of forecasting experiments on a middle city in China are carried out, and the results are analyzed for a better understanding of the mechanisms of the forecasting skill. The result shows that time-related features extracted by Prophet can enhance the forecasting skill significantly, and this advantage is more apparent when the forecasting horizon is large. PM2.5 time series has short memory and a rapid response to changes in meteorological conditions, and only meteorological conditions in the previous 2 days have useful signals for forecasting. The rapid response and short memory of PM2.5 make LSTM show no advantage over GBM in this case study. We show that feature engineering is important for forecasting PM2.5, and the time-related features and antecedent pollutant concentrations can be seen as proxy variables for some variables that are difficult to obtain, such as pollutant emission and missing meteorological conditions.