Spatiotemporal evolution of global antimony raw material trade network and China’s shifting position
摘要
Against the backdrop of the global energy transition and rising geopolitical uncertainties, China’s Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs announced export controls on antimony in August 2024, highlighting the strategic importance of understanding global antimony supply structures. This paper aims to systematically examine the spatiotemporal evolution of the global antimony raw material trade network (GARMTN) and clarify the changing roles and positions of countries and regions, thereby supporting sustainable supply chains and secure governance. Employing social network analysis (SNA), this research examines the phased spatiotemporal evolution of the GARMTN from 2000 to 2023 and analyses its topological characteristics. The findings show that: (1) the product structure of antimony trade is shifting from primary resources towards recycled resources and higher value-added products, with secondary antimony gaining importance in the global supply mix; (2) the trade pattern is evolving from early unipolar concentration to a multicentered system, as emerging economies such as Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, India, South Korea, and Türkiye rise, indicating a clear trend towards supply diversification; (3) the GARMTN has expanded in scale and complexity and exhibits small-world characteristics, with connectivity, transmission efficiency, and internal cohesion improving as the network develops; and (4) China’s interdependence with trading partners has deepened, particularly with Southeast Asia. Its network scale continues to expand, autonomy increases, and intermediary bridging role and structural hole capacity strengthen. Although China’s central position remains stable, its absolute dominance has weakened. Finally, policy recommendations are proposed for the sustainable development of China’s antimony industry.