How vulnerable are India’s North-Eastern hills to climate change? Understanding environmental and socio-economic drivers of climate vulnerability in the state of Manipur

Climate change threatens the environmental and socio-economic sustainability of people living in the ecologically fragile hills of Northeast India. To respond effectively to these challenges, there is a need for an integrated vulnerability assessment to guide the formulation of adaptation strategies. Climate vulnerability refers to an area's susceptibility or inability to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change, including variability and extremes, highlighting the need to assess both environmental and socioeconomic factors. This study conducted a district-level assessment of climate vulnerability in Manipur using a Composite Vulnerability Index (CVI) that combined environmental (8 indicators) and socioeconomic (6 indicators) factors with an unequal weighting scheme. GIS techniques were employed to map the CVI, Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI), and Socioeconomic Vulnerability Index (SVI), revealing spatial variations in climate vulnerability and its driving factors. The results of the CVI indicated that Imphal West District(CVI = 0.234) was the least climate-vulnerable, due to its low social vulnerability (SVI = 0.196) and intermediate EVI score (0.323). On the other hand, Thoubal emerged as the most climate-vulnerable district in the state because of its high social vulnerability. Districts such as Churachandpur (EVI = 0.742) exhibited high environmental vulnerability, whereas the Senapati District (0.227) experienced minimum vulnerability according to the EVI. Grouping of districts into low, medium and high climate vulnerability categories was validated using hierarchical cluster analysis. This underscored the significance of targeted interventions for districts experiencing different levels of climate vulnerability. The findings of this study may be relevant for similar contexts within the Indian Himalayan states, especially in tropical and subtropical regions where urgent climate adaptation measures are essential. Moreover, the methods show significant flexibility, enabling comparisons of vulnerability across districts of the region and elsewhere. Importantly, it can adjust indicators to anticipate future changes in socioeconomic conditions.