Unveiling the influence of climatic and non-climatic factors on pulse production in Bangladesh for sustainable solutions: exploring the long-run and short-run dynamics

This study highlights the urgent need for sustainable pulse production solutions in Bangladesh, given the nutritional and economic importance of pulses and the increasing challenges posed by climate change. Data from 1972 to 2020 were analyzed using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to investigate the long-run and short-run dynamics affecting pulse production. Granger causality tests was also employed to explore causal relationships and significant influences among the variables. The results revealed that average annual rainfall significantly enhances long-term pulse production, while temperature and humidity had insignificant negative effects. Conversely, carbon dioxide emissions showed a substantial negative long-term impact on pulse production. Non-climatic factors, such as pulse area, total population, and fertilizer use, showed significant positive effects in the long run, whereas energy consumption in agriculture remained statistically insignificant. In the short-run, pulse area, total population, and fertilizer use notably boosted production, while energy consumption continued to be insignificant. Granger causality tests identified causal links between CO₂ emissions and total population, as well as two-way relationships between rainfall, pulse area, and production. These findings provide critical insights for stakeholders and policymakers in developing sustainable pulse production strategies.