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<p>The 21st-century agribusiness sector faces increasing pressure to integrate production optimization with environmental impact mitigation. This study aims to develop and analyze a System Dynamics (SD) model to evaluate sustainability intervention strategies within the dairy industry. The methodology involves constructing a qualitative baseline model using Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) and a quantitative framework using Stock and Flow Diagrams (SFDs) to reflect the dynamics of livestock population, operational costs, and profitability. The model was validated with high accuracy against historical data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) for the 2015–2024 period, yielding mean relative error and amplitude variation rates of E1 = 3.30% and E2 = 4.61% for cattle population, and E1 = 3.43% and E2 = 1.68% for milk production, respectively.</p><p>Following validation, the model simulated three intervention scenarios for the 2025–2034 period: Feed Composition Change, Water Recycling Improvement, and Energy Efficiency. Key results demonstrate that all scenarios successfully increased milk production by effectively mitigating operational cost constraints. The Energy Efficiency scenario was identified as the most optimal policy, achieving the highest average production increase of 8.49%. This performance is driven by a feedback mechanism that converts energy cost savings into reinvestment capital for livestock productivity, generating significant fiscal leverage. The study concludes that interventions focused on technological and economic efficiency provide the most substantial impact on achieving sustainable production targets. However, successful implementation requires supportive policies to ensure technology accessibility for small-scale dairy farmers, thereby preventing socio-economic disparities.</p>

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Optimization of Sustainable Dairy Production Processes: A System Dynamics Approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月12日

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  • Hery Murnawan,
  • Hari Purnomo

摘要

The 21st-century agribusiness sector faces increasing pressure to integrate production optimization with environmental impact mitigation. This study aims to develop and analyze a System Dynamics (SD) model to evaluate sustainability intervention strategies within the dairy industry. The methodology involves constructing a qualitative baseline model using Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) and a quantitative framework using Stock and Flow Diagrams (SFDs) to reflect the dynamics of livestock population, operational costs, and profitability. The model was validated with high accuracy against historical data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) for the 2015–2024 period, yielding mean relative error and amplitude variation rates of E1 = 3.30% and E2 = 4.61% for cattle population, and E1 = 3.43% and E2 = 1.68% for milk production, respectively.

Following validation, the model simulated three intervention scenarios for the 2025–2034 period: Feed Composition Change, Water Recycling Improvement, and Energy Efficiency. Key results demonstrate that all scenarios successfully increased milk production by effectively mitigating operational cost constraints. The Energy Efficiency scenario was identified as the most optimal policy, achieving the highest average production increase of 8.49%. This performance is driven by a feedback mechanism that converts energy cost savings into reinvestment capital for livestock productivity, generating significant fiscal leverage. The study concludes that interventions focused on technological and economic efficiency provide the most substantial impact on achieving sustainable production targets. However, successful implementation requires supportive policies to ensure technology accessibility for small-scale dairy farmers, thereby preventing socio-economic disparities.