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<p>Hydrogen is pivotal for decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors, yet its supply chains face complex, interdependent risks that can undermine environmental and operational goals. This study aims to evaluate and structurally model these systemic risks to inform resilient and low-carbon hydrogen deployment. An integrated FMEA-ISM-MICMAC framework is employed, first prioritizing risks via Failure Mode and Effects Analysis and then mapping their causal hierarchies using Interpretive Structural Modeling and MICMAC classification. The analysis identifies insufficient production infrastructure, technological immaturity, and regulatory uncertainty as independent driver risks with high systemic influence. These foundational constraints propagate instability through linkage variables like supply-demand imbalance, ultimately causing dependent operational failures. The findings reveal that system vulnerability stems not from isolated events but from upstream institutional misalignment. Consequently, effective governance must shift from reactive mitigation to proactive intervention at these strategic root causes. This research contributes a validated, systems-based framework that prioritizes strategic leverage points for policymakers and practitioners to enhance the resilience and sustainability of emerging hydrogen economies.</p>

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From Symptoms to Root Causes: An Integrated Structural Model of Decarbonization Risks in Emerging Hydrogen Supply Chains

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月11日

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  • Ilyas Masudin,
  • Rangga Primadasa,
  • Dian Palupi Restuputri,
  • Erly Ekayanti Rosyida

摘要

Hydrogen is pivotal for decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors, yet its supply chains face complex, interdependent risks that can undermine environmental and operational goals. This study aims to evaluate and structurally model these systemic risks to inform resilient and low-carbon hydrogen deployment. An integrated FMEA-ISM-MICMAC framework is employed, first prioritizing risks via Failure Mode and Effects Analysis and then mapping their causal hierarchies using Interpretive Structural Modeling and MICMAC classification. The analysis identifies insufficient production infrastructure, technological immaturity, and regulatory uncertainty as independent driver risks with high systemic influence. These foundational constraints propagate instability through linkage variables like supply-demand imbalance, ultimately causing dependent operational failures. The findings reveal that system vulnerability stems not from isolated events but from upstream institutional misalignment. Consequently, effective governance must shift from reactive mitigation to proactive intervention at these strategic root causes. This research contributes a validated, systems-based framework that prioritizes strategic leverage points for policymakers and practitioners to enhance the resilience and sustainability of emerging hydrogen economies.