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<p>The demand for petrochemical products is increasing, with projected emissions reaching approximately 2&#xa0;billion tons of CO₂ by 2050, accounting for 4% of total global emissions. Although various energy, economy, and environment (EEE) nexus models exist in the literature for petrochemical industries, analyses incorporating production technologies and feedstock competition are lacking. This study develops a comprehensive EEE nexus model to identify optimal pathways for petrochemical production. The model integrates the material nexus of ammonia, methanol, ethylene, propylene, and aromatics, alongside environmentally friendly products such as green ammonia, and accounts for environmental degradation arising from CO₂ emissions and water consumption. The resulting multi-objective optimization problem is solved using the NSGA-II algorithm. Additionally, three scenarios are defined based on uncertainty, and robust optimization is performed using the min–max regret approach. The robust nexus model recommends allocating an annual investment of 9.818&#xa0;billion USD (over a 25-year horizon) as follows: 37% to blue ammonia, 29% to methanol, 9% to olefins via butane cracking, 11% to ethylene via the methanol-to-olefin (MTO) process, 13% to propylene via the methanol-to-propylene (MTP) process, and 1% to other products (i.e., benzene, toluene, and xylene from pyrolysis gasoline). These allocations correspond to an annual methanol production of 1.92&#xa0;million tons, of which 1.81&#xa0;million tons are dedicated to olefin production. Considering the highest environmental degradation costs, the model further recommends an annual blue ammonia production capacity of 1.6&#xa0;million tons.</p>

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A Robust Optimization Model to Select the Petrochemical Production Pathway Based On the Nexus of Energy, Economy and Environment

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月13日

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  • Ehsan Shoaei,
  • Majid Shafiepour-Motlagh,
  • Babak Omidvar,
  • Hamid Afshari

摘要

The demand for petrochemical products is increasing, with projected emissions reaching approximately 2 billion tons of CO₂ by 2050, accounting for 4% of total global emissions. Although various energy, economy, and environment (EEE) nexus models exist in the literature for petrochemical industries, analyses incorporating production technologies and feedstock competition are lacking. This study develops a comprehensive EEE nexus model to identify optimal pathways for petrochemical production. The model integrates the material nexus of ammonia, methanol, ethylene, propylene, and aromatics, alongside environmentally friendly products such as green ammonia, and accounts for environmental degradation arising from CO₂ emissions and water consumption. The resulting multi-objective optimization problem is solved using the NSGA-II algorithm. Additionally, three scenarios are defined based on uncertainty, and robust optimization is performed using the min–max regret approach. The robust nexus model recommends allocating an annual investment of 9.818 billion USD (over a 25-year horizon) as follows: 37% to blue ammonia, 29% to methanol, 9% to olefins via butane cracking, 11% to ethylene via the methanol-to-olefin (MTO) process, 13% to propylene via the methanol-to-propylene (MTP) process, and 1% to other products (i.e., benzene, toluene, and xylene from pyrolysis gasoline). These allocations correspond to an annual methanol production of 1.92 million tons, of which 1.81 million tons are dedicated to olefin production. Considering the highest environmental degradation costs, the model further recommends an annual blue ammonia production capacity of 1.6 million tons.