Development of Nationwide Multi-Technology Energy Transition Framework for Intensive Decarbonisation Strategy in Indonesia

Indonesia aims for net-zero emissions by 2050, aligning with global efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C. A major carbon emitter, the country focuses on the energy sector’s transition from fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) to renewables (solar, wind, hydropower). It is noted that geographic variations will influence regional timelines in achieving the set target. This study introduces a mathematical optimisation model, employing mixed-integer linear programming (MILP), to systematically address Indonesia’s energy transition complexities. Focusing on key regions—Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Papua, and Java-Bali—the model utilises literature-derived data on energy supplies, capacities, demands, and projections. The primary objective is to minimise total annualised costs while meeting CO₂ emission targets and regional demand fulfilment. Results from the model identify optimal technologies for each region, facilitating the transition from fossil fuels to renewables in alignment with a 2050 zero emission goal. The analysis underscores the need for carbon capture technologies to achieve net-zero carbon emissions. Moreover, current technologies prove insufficient to meet the growing energy demands, projected to increase by 4.9% annually, while simultaneously adhering to carbon emission targets.