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<p>Urban heat island (UHI) effects are intensifying in rapidly urbanizing regions, with mid-latitude cities like Chongqing, China, increasingly affected. However, the combined future causal influence of land-use/land-cover change (LULCC) and surface energy balance on UHI dynamics in mountainous cities remains underexplored. This study addresses this gap by integrating Landsat datasets and CMIP6 projections with extended convergent cross-mapping (ECCM) and extended geographical convergent cross-mapping (EGCCM) to investigate UHI evolution in Chongqing, China, from 1992 to 2062 under varying socioeconomic scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Our results demonstrate dramatic urban expansion, with built-up areas growing by 1399% (from 230 to 3447 km<sup>2</sup>) and corresponding UHI intensity increasing by 2.56&#xa0;°C by 2022. Future projections indicate continued intensification, reaching 3.45&#xa0;°C under SSP2-4.5 and 3.81&#xa0;°C under SSP5-8.5 by 2062. Energy balance analysis revealed strong relationships between UHI and key surface fluxes, particularly net radiation (<i>R</i><sup>2</sup> = 0.88) and sensible heat (<i>R</i><sup>2</sup> = 0.85), while latent heat decreased by 22.7% (from 110 to 85 W/m<sup>2</sup>). Vegetated areas demonstrated significant cooling effects (<i>R</i><sup>2</sup> = 0.79), contrasting with impervious surfaces that enhanced radiative forcing. Causal analysis identified built-up areas (<i>ρ</i> &gt; 0.75) and bare land (<i>ρ </i>≈ 0.65) as primary UHI drivers, while forests mitigated heat accumulation (<i>ρ </i>≈ −0.70). The study also revealed distinctive topographic influences, with valley-confined urban cores exhibiting 15–20% higher sensible heat fluxes compared to flat areas. This study advances UHI research in mountain cities by developing a transferable framework combining climate projections and causal analysis. The findings support climate-adaptive planning through nature-based solutions for global urban heat challenges.</p>

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Urban Heat Island Response to Projected Land-Use Change and Surface Energy Balance Modifications in Chongqing City, China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月9日

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  • Emmanuel Yeboah,
  • Guojie Wang,
  • Pedro Cabral,
  • Isaac Sarfo,
  • Xikun Wei,
  • Haonan Liu,
  • Yuhao Shao,
  • Solomon Obiri Yeboah Amankwah,
  • Myint Myint Shwe,
  • Javeed Iqbal,
  • Shan Jiang,
  • Collins Oduro

摘要

Urban heat island (UHI) effects are intensifying in rapidly urbanizing regions, with mid-latitude cities like Chongqing, China, increasingly affected. However, the combined future causal influence of land-use/land-cover change (LULCC) and surface energy balance on UHI dynamics in mountainous cities remains underexplored. This study addresses this gap by integrating Landsat datasets and CMIP6 projections with extended convergent cross-mapping (ECCM) and extended geographical convergent cross-mapping (EGCCM) to investigate UHI evolution in Chongqing, China, from 1992 to 2062 under varying socioeconomic scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Our results demonstrate dramatic urban expansion, with built-up areas growing by 1399% (from 230 to 3447 km2) and corresponding UHI intensity increasing by 2.56 °C by 2022. Future projections indicate continued intensification, reaching 3.45 °C under SSP2-4.5 and 3.81 °C under SSP5-8.5 by 2062. Energy balance analysis revealed strong relationships between UHI and key surface fluxes, particularly net radiation (R2 = 0.88) and sensible heat (R2 = 0.85), while latent heat decreased by 22.7% (from 110 to 85 W/m2). Vegetated areas demonstrated significant cooling effects (R2 = 0.79), contrasting with impervious surfaces that enhanced radiative forcing. Causal analysis identified built-up areas (ρ > 0.75) and bare land (ρ ≈ 0.65) as primary UHI drivers, while forests mitigated heat accumulation (ρ ≈ −0.70). The study also revealed distinctive topographic influences, with valley-confined urban cores exhibiting 15–20% higher sensible heat fluxes compared to flat areas. This study advances UHI research in mountain cities by developing a transferable framework combining climate projections and causal analysis. The findings support climate-adaptive planning through nature-based solutions for global urban heat challenges.