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<p>In this paper we introduce a novel measure of uncertainty defined at the micro-level as firms’ inability to forecast the evolution of own revenues in the current or subsequent year. In order to do so, we exploit newly-available survey data collected by the Chamber of Commerce of Bolzano–Bozen for the period 2014–2023. Uncertainty is higher among firms of smaller size, active in construction and manufacturing, and with the legal form of the sole proprietorship. Looking at the evolution of uncertainty over time, we find a significant increase in the share of uncertain firms in 2021, which persisted (although of smaller magnitude) through the most recent available year, 2023. The overall increase was highest among firms of smaller size and among those with the legal form of a sole proprietorship. We finally analyze the link between firm-level uncertainty and investment behavior: the probability that a firm increases its investments is 3.6 percentage points lower among uncertain firms than among others (the average share is just above 20 percent).</p>

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Firm-Level Uncertainty and Investments: Evidence from South Tyrol

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月16日

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  • Andrea Locatelli,
  • Luciano Partacini,
  • Nicola Riz

摘要

In this paper we introduce a novel measure of uncertainty defined at the micro-level as firms’ inability to forecast the evolution of own revenues in the current or subsequent year. In order to do so, we exploit newly-available survey data collected by the Chamber of Commerce of Bolzano–Bozen for the period 2014–2023. Uncertainty is higher among firms of smaller size, active in construction and manufacturing, and with the legal form of the sole proprietorship. Looking at the evolution of uncertainty over time, we find a significant increase in the share of uncertain firms in 2021, which persisted (although of smaller magnitude) through the most recent available year, 2023. The overall increase was highest among firms of smaller size and among those with the legal form of a sole proprietorship. We finally analyze the link between firm-level uncertainty and investment behavior: the probability that a firm increases its investments is 3.6 percentage points lower among uncertain firms than among others (the average share is just above 20 percent).