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<p>This paper reassesses the “resource curse” hypothesis in the Russian economy over 1990–2021 using coherent wavelet analysis. We study the time-varying and horizon-specific relationships among natural resource rents, GDP per capita, and the Human Development Index (HDI). Contrary to a universal curse narrative, we find no persistent negative association between resource rents and development. At long horizons, rents are positively associated with HDI, suggesting scope for resource wealth to finance social progress. Short-run comovements are episodic and regime-dependent: during periods of macroeconomic stability, rents align with higher income and human development, whereas crises and institutional uncertainty weaken or temporarily reverse these links. The results imply that policy and institutional quality—rather than resource abundance per se—determine development outcomes.</p>

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Deciphering the Myth of the Resource Curse: A Coherent Wavelet Analysis of Russia’s Economic and Social Dynamics

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月13日

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  • Anastasia Kurilova

摘要

This paper reassesses the “resource curse” hypothesis in the Russian economy over 1990–2021 using coherent wavelet analysis. We study the time-varying and horizon-specific relationships among natural resource rents, GDP per capita, and the Human Development Index (HDI). Contrary to a universal curse narrative, we find no persistent negative association between resource rents and development. At long horizons, rents are positively associated with HDI, suggesting scope for resource wealth to finance social progress. Short-run comovements are episodic and regime-dependent: during periods of macroeconomic stability, rents align with higher income and human development, whereas crises and institutional uncertainty weaken or temporarily reverse these links. The results imply that policy and institutional quality—rather than resource abundance per se—determine development outcomes.