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<p>Zika virus disease remains a global public health concern due to its multiple transmission routes. Zika virus disease has a high prevalence of asymptomatic infections and limitations in healthcare resources. This study proposes a mathematical model to examine the dynamics of Zika transmission. The model incorporates multiple transmission routes with saturated incidence rates. The model includes asymptomatic and symptomatic infection classes, as well as medical resource limitations. The positivity and boundedness of the model are established. Equilibrium states and their stability are analyzed using the reproduction number. Model validation is performed using real data from Puerto Rico. Sensitivity analysis identifies key parameters driving Zika transmission. The reproduction number analysis indicates that transmission rates, recovery rate, and vector control efforts play dominant roles in shaping outbreak dynamics. We introduce an optimal control model with four interventions: mosquito bite prevention, human-to-human transmission prevention, medical support, and vector control. Optimality conditions are derived using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle. We perform numerical simulations to assess optimality using the Runge–Kutta forward-backwards sweep method. Efficiency analysis of five intervention strategies indicates that combining all four controls yields the highest reduction in Zika infections. Furthermore, the cost-effectiveness analysis shows that combining mosquito bite prevention, human-to-human transmission prevention, and medical treatment is the most cost-effective approach. These findings provide quantitative evidence to inform resource allocation for Zika outbreak mitigation. This study highlights the importance of developing effective treatments and vaccines for Zika and related vector-borne diseases.</p>

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Zika endemic control strategies with multiple transmission routes and resource constraints

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月29日

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  • Arvind Kumar Sinha,
  • Sunil Kanhaiyalal Kushavaha

摘要

Zika virus disease remains a global public health concern due to its multiple transmission routes. Zika virus disease has a high prevalence of asymptomatic infections and limitations in healthcare resources. This study proposes a mathematical model to examine the dynamics of Zika transmission. The model incorporates multiple transmission routes with saturated incidence rates. The model includes asymptomatic and symptomatic infection classes, as well as medical resource limitations. The positivity and boundedness of the model are established. Equilibrium states and their stability are analyzed using the reproduction number. Model validation is performed using real data from Puerto Rico. Sensitivity analysis identifies key parameters driving Zika transmission. The reproduction number analysis indicates that transmission rates, recovery rate, and vector control efforts play dominant roles in shaping outbreak dynamics. We introduce an optimal control model with four interventions: mosquito bite prevention, human-to-human transmission prevention, medical support, and vector control. Optimality conditions are derived using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle. We perform numerical simulations to assess optimality using the Runge–Kutta forward-backwards sweep method. Efficiency analysis of five intervention strategies indicates that combining all four controls yields the highest reduction in Zika infections. Furthermore, the cost-effectiveness analysis shows that combining mosquito bite prevention, human-to-human transmission prevention, and medical treatment is the most cost-effective approach. These findings provide quantitative evidence to inform resource allocation for Zika outbreak mitigation. This study highlights the importance of developing effective treatments and vaccines for Zika and related vector-borne diseases.