Spatial polarization and persistent crime cores in U.S. counties: a 15-year multi-crime analysis

This study examines eight crime types—murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny, motor vehicle theft, and arson—across counties in the United States from 2000 to 2014 using ArcGIS-based spatial analysis across three five-year intervals. Thematic mapping revealed the highest crime intensities during 2000–2004, with most crime types—except rape—declining through 2014. Larceny, burglary, and aggravated assault consistently recorded the highest rates. Hotspot analysis identified spatial clustering across all crime types, with burglary and aggravated assault forming the most persistent hotspots. In contrast, rape exhibited a distinct spatiotemporal pattern with a marked decline in hotspot counties. Geographically, persistent hotspots were concentrated in the South and extended into the West and Southwest, whereas cold spots remained centered in the Northern Plains and Central Midwest, particularly the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Iowa. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers by identifying regional vulnerabilities and informing targeted long-term crime intervention strategies.