<p>This study investigates the effects of climate change and land use changes (LUC) on wetland ecosystems in the İslahiye district of Gaziantep, Türkiye, using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Historical data from 1990 to 2018—including climate records, satellite imagery, and land cover datasets—were analyzed to evaluate wetland dynamics. Statistical methods such as Spearman correlation, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and Markov Chain Analysis (MCA) were employed, alongside the Wetland Sustainability Index (WSI) and Climate Change Index (CCI). Results showed a consistent increase in temperature, variability in precipitation, and significant transitions in land use, contributing to a 30% decline in wetland areas. The study revealed a strong negative correlation between temperature and wetland extent (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05), and land use shifts from agriculture to urban and forested zones. Notably, this research provides one of the most recent and comprehensive pre-earthquake ecological assessments of wetlands in the region. It establishes a baseline before the significant earthquakes that struck the area on February 6, 2023—measuring 7.7 Mw (Pazarcık, Türkiye) and 7.6 Mw (Elbistan, Türkiye)—which caused widespread environmental disruption. The findings offer critical insights for future post-seismic ecological evaluations and inform sustainable wetland management under climate and disaster stress.</p>

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A novel multi-method GIS-based assessment of wetland sustainability under climate and land use change: a pre-earthquake study from İslahiye, Türkiye

  • Abuzer Çelekli,
  • Özgür Eren Zariç

摘要

This study investigates the effects of climate change and land use changes (LUC) on wetland ecosystems in the İslahiye district of Gaziantep, Türkiye, using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Historical data from 1990 to 2018—including climate records, satellite imagery, and land cover datasets—were analyzed to evaluate wetland dynamics. Statistical methods such as Spearman correlation, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and Markov Chain Analysis (MCA) were employed, alongside the Wetland Sustainability Index (WSI) and Climate Change Index (CCI). Results showed a consistent increase in temperature, variability in precipitation, and significant transitions in land use, contributing to a 30% decline in wetland areas. The study revealed a strong negative correlation between temperature and wetland extent (p < 0.05), and land use shifts from agriculture to urban and forested zones. Notably, this research provides one of the most recent and comprehensive pre-earthquake ecological assessments of wetlands in the region. It establishes a baseline before the significant earthquakes that struck the area on February 6, 2023—measuring 7.7 Mw (Pazarcık, Türkiye) and 7.6 Mw (Elbistan, Türkiye)—which caused widespread environmental disruption. The findings offer critical insights for future post-seismic ecological evaluations and inform sustainable wetland management under climate and disaster stress.