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<p>The north-eastern shoreline of Tunisia has experienced significant urban intensification and marked coastal transformation. A diachronic analysis based on remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) tools was conducted to monitor shoreline evolution and urban expansion over a 40-year period (1985–2025). The study relied on a time series of Landsat images and historical topographic maps. Shorelines change rates were calculated using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS), through the End Point Rate (EPR) method with a 99% confidence interval. Urban expansion was mapped using supervised classification, revealing growth in built-up areas over 80%, particularly in La Marsa region. This dynamic expansion has been accompanied by accelerated coastal erosion, especially in areas affected by port infrastructure or by the reduction of sediment supply resulting from dam construction. Erosion rates of up to 2.5 ± 0.27&#xa0;m/ year were recorded, while some sections holding protection infrastructures showed relative stability. However, the degradation of natural protections such as dunes, coastal forests, and Posidonia seagrass beds has increased shoreline vulnerability. The coastal vulnerability Index (CVI) underlines the strongest impact of geomorphology and shoreline erosion rates on the study coastline. This study highlights the value of an integrated approach combining remote sensing data, geomorphological analysis, and spatial tools to understand coastal dynamics. It underscores the need to promote flexible and ecologically coherent coastal management strategies under growing anthropogenic and climate-related pressures.</p>

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Vulnerability of the Tunisian Northeast Coasts: A Comprehensive Multi-Decadal Analysis of Shoreline Changes and Urbanization Trends

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月23日

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  • Feyda Srarfi,
  • Sarra Chatti,
  • Yasser Laichaoui,
  • Mohamed Salah Hamdi,
  • Abdelaziz Sebei

摘要

The north-eastern shoreline of Tunisia has experienced significant urban intensification and marked coastal transformation. A diachronic analysis based on remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) tools was conducted to monitor shoreline evolution and urban expansion over a 40-year period (1985–2025). The study relied on a time series of Landsat images and historical topographic maps. Shorelines change rates were calculated using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS), through the End Point Rate (EPR) method with a 99% confidence interval. Urban expansion was mapped using supervised classification, revealing growth in built-up areas over 80%, particularly in La Marsa region. This dynamic expansion has been accompanied by accelerated coastal erosion, especially in areas affected by port infrastructure or by the reduction of sediment supply resulting from dam construction. Erosion rates of up to 2.5 ± 0.27 m/ year were recorded, while some sections holding protection infrastructures showed relative stability. However, the degradation of natural protections such as dunes, coastal forests, and Posidonia seagrass beds has increased shoreline vulnerability. The coastal vulnerability Index (CVI) underlines the strongest impact of geomorphology and shoreline erosion rates on the study coastline. This study highlights the value of an integrated approach combining remote sensing data, geomorphological analysis, and spatial tools to understand coastal dynamics. It underscores the need to promote flexible and ecologically coherent coastal management strategies under growing anthropogenic and climate-related pressures.