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<p>The west coast of Sumatra is particularly vulnerable to sea level variability due to its direct exposure to the Indian Ocean, oceanographically complex region, and its location near active tectonic subduction zones. This study aims to analyze trends of Sea Level Anomaly (SLA) along the west coast of Sumatra during the period 1993–2024 using satellite altimetry data. To quantify long-term sea level changes, the SLA time series were analyzed at 35 observation points distributed along the coastline. A linear least squares method was applied to estimate sea level trends by fitting linear models to the SLA data at each location. The results show that most stations recorded positive SLA trends that exceeded the global average of 3.4 ± 0.3&#xa0;mm yr⁻¹, with a regional average of 3.99 ± 0.57&#xa0;mm yr⁻¹. At the Kota Agung, Sibolga, and Sinabang stations, the SLA trends were identified to exceed 5&#xa0;mm yr⁻¹, indicating local intensification. This increase is likely influenced by a combination of global climate factors (thermal expansion and ice melt), large-scale climate variability such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, influence of the Indonesian Throughflow, tectonic activity, and land subsidence. These findings indicate that the west coast of Sumatra is a vulnerable area that requires targeted mitigation strategies. Insights into sea level dynamics in this region are generated to support the development of science-based policies for coastal risk management.</p>

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Long-Term Sea Level Trend Along the West Coast of Sumatra Derived From Satellite Altimetry (1993–2024)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月18日

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  • Wenti Doresta Utami,
  • Ashar Muda Lubis,
  • Maura Alyafie Nurel,
  • Arya J. Akbar,
  • Isra Amalia,
  • Rida Samdara

摘要

The west coast of Sumatra is particularly vulnerable to sea level variability due to its direct exposure to the Indian Ocean, oceanographically complex region, and its location near active tectonic subduction zones. This study aims to analyze trends of Sea Level Anomaly (SLA) along the west coast of Sumatra during the period 1993–2024 using satellite altimetry data. To quantify long-term sea level changes, the SLA time series were analyzed at 35 observation points distributed along the coastline. A linear least squares method was applied to estimate sea level trends by fitting linear models to the SLA data at each location. The results show that most stations recorded positive SLA trends that exceeded the global average of 3.4 ± 0.3 mm yr⁻¹, with a regional average of 3.99 ± 0.57 mm yr⁻¹. At the Kota Agung, Sibolga, and Sinabang stations, the SLA trends were identified to exceed 5 mm yr⁻¹, indicating local intensification. This increase is likely influenced by a combination of global climate factors (thermal expansion and ice melt), large-scale climate variability such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, influence of the Indonesian Throughflow, tectonic activity, and land subsidence. These findings indicate that the west coast of Sumatra is a vulnerable area that requires targeted mitigation strategies. Insights into sea level dynamics in this region are generated to support the development of science-based policies for coastal risk management.