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<p>This research aimed to forecast the fluctuations in shark and ray stocks in response to long-term changes in critical environmental variables from 2008 to 2021 in the Iranian side of the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea. We considered environmental data, including sea surface temperature, surface water chlorophyll-a, wind speed, air temperature, evaporation, and rainfall, in order to assess changes in shark and ray Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE). During the study period, wind speed, evaporation, and chlorophyll-a showed a decreasing trend, while sea surface temperature and precipitation increased. The results of the decision tree (GBM) revealed that evaporation and wind speed were the most effective factors contributing to shark stock fluctuations. Similar results were observed for ray stocks, with wind speed and chlorophyll-a being the primary factors. The initial results of the Holt-Winters forecasting method indicated a high possibility of population collapse in the elasmobranch stock in the region, with the shark stock projected to collapse in 2027 and rays in 2024. Results of this study suggest that there may be a depletion of sharks and rays in the Persian Gulf, Iranian waters. Although some laws for elasmobranch conservation already exist in Iran, it is obvious that they must be reexamined to allow the stock to recover.</p>

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Forecast of Elasmobranch Fisheries in the Persian Gulf and the Oman Sea: the Influence of Climatic and Environmental Changes

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月19日

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  • Mahnaz Rabbaniha,
  • Mohammad Hasan Gerami,
  • Fereidoon Owfi,
  • Mojtaba Pouladi,
  • Najmeh Haghighatjou

摘要

This research aimed to forecast the fluctuations in shark and ray stocks in response to long-term changes in critical environmental variables from 2008 to 2021 in the Iranian side of the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea. We considered environmental data, including sea surface temperature, surface water chlorophyll-a, wind speed, air temperature, evaporation, and rainfall, in order to assess changes in shark and ray Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE). During the study period, wind speed, evaporation, and chlorophyll-a showed a decreasing trend, while sea surface temperature and precipitation increased. The results of the decision tree (GBM) revealed that evaporation and wind speed were the most effective factors contributing to shark stock fluctuations. Similar results were observed for ray stocks, with wind speed and chlorophyll-a being the primary factors. The initial results of the Holt-Winters forecasting method indicated a high possibility of population collapse in the elasmobranch stock in the region, with the shark stock projected to collapse in 2027 and rays in 2024. Results of this study suggest that there may be a depletion of sharks and rays in the Persian Gulf, Iranian waters. Although some laws for elasmobranch conservation already exist in Iran, it is obvious that they must be reexamined to allow the stock to recover.