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<p>Plastic pollution poses urgent environmental and public health risks, particularly in Morocco’s agri-food sector, which shows increasing reliance on imported polymers. This study aims to analyze Morocco’s plastic import dynamics and project future trends by 2030, assess key policy instruments such as Extended Producer Responsibility and eco-tax mechanisms, and propose a Theory of Change framework to guide policymakers toward sustainable plastic waste management in the agri-food sector. Using ARIMA modeling, plastic imports are projected to rise significantly by 2030, especially for LDPE, HDPE, and PP, driven by packaging and industrial demand. This upward trend reflects Morocco’s increasing reliance on imported polymers in the agri-food sector and highlights the urgency of deploying financial instruments such as Extended Producer Responsibility and eco-tax mechanisms to finance recycling infrastructure and incentivize sustainable practices. Our analysis shows that plastics used in the food and beverage sector activate meaningful financial flows through these mechanisms. A Theory of Change model is proposed to guide systemic change, linking awareness, regulation, and financial incentives to measurable environmental and social impacts. By aligning national policies with sustainability goals, the study provides a roadmap for reducing plastic-related environmental degradation, improving public health, and creating economic opportunities.</p>

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Sustainable plastic management in Morocco : trade analysis and environmental policy recommendations

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月31日

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  • Mariam Tangarfa,
  • Amine AbouTalib,
  • Chouaib Benqlilou

摘要

Plastic pollution poses urgent environmental and public health risks, particularly in Morocco’s agri-food sector, which shows increasing reliance on imported polymers. This study aims to analyze Morocco’s plastic import dynamics and project future trends by 2030, assess key policy instruments such as Extended Producer Responsibility and eco-tax mechanisms, and propose a Theory of Change framework to guide policymakers toward sustainable plastic waste management in the agri-food sector. Using ARIMA modeling, plastic imports are projected to rise significantly by 2030, especially for LDPE, HDPE, and PP, driven by packaging and industrial demand. This upward trend reflects Morocco’s increasing reliance on imported polymers in the agri-food sector and highlights the urgency of deploying financial instruments such as Extended Producer Responsibility and eco-tax mechanisms to finance recycling infrastructure and incentivize sustainable practices. Our analysis shows that plastics used in the food and beverage sector activate meaningful financial flows through these mechanisms. A Theory of Change model is proposed to guide systemic change, linking awareness, regulation, and financial incentives to measurable environmental and social impacts. By aligning national policies with sustainability goals, the study provides a roadmap for reducing plastic-related environmental degradation, improving public health, and creating economic opportunities.