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<p>Climate change threatens agriculture, making arid regions vulnerable to overgrazing, crop encroachment, and shifting climate parameters. <i>Stipagrostis ciliata</i> (<i>S. ciliata</i>), a drought-resistant perennial grass, plays a crucial role in restoring semi-arid and arid rangelands and combating desertification. This study parameterized, calibrated, validated, and tested the LINTUL-MULTICROP model to assess <i>S. ciliata</i> biomass responses under three global climate models (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-AO, and MPI-ESM-MR). Model calibration and validation showed strong correlations between observed and simulated biomass (<i>R</i><sup>2</sup> = 0.985 and 0.981, respectively), with statistical assessments confirming satisfactory performance (nRMSE = 14.70%, MAE = 0.648 t ha<sup>−1</sup>, <i>p</i> = 0.92, <i>d</i>-index = 0.994). Climate change simulations under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projected increasing biomass across future periods, peaking at 14.6&#xa0;t&#xa0;ha<sup>−1</sup> in 2080–2099. The results highlight <i>S. ciliata</i>’s potential in climate adaptation, emphasizing its role in enhancing biomass productivity while raising concerns about biodiversity conservation. The validated LINTUL model provides a reliable tool for predicting ecosystem responses in arid environments, supporting sustainable land management and rangeland restoration strategies amid evolving climate challenges.</p> Graphical abstract <p></p>

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Modeling and predicting biomass yield of Stipagrostis ciliata (Desf.), a climate-resilient forage, under future climate conditions in Tunisia using the LINTUL-MULTICROP model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月6日

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  • Mansour Secrafi,
  • Tefide Kizildeniz,
  • Ali Kaan Yetik,
  • Fayçal Boughalleb,
  • Raoudha Abdellaoui

摘要

Climate change threatens agriculture, making arid regions vulnerable to overgrazing, crop encroachment, and shifting climate parameters. Stipagrostis ciliata (S. ciliata), a drought-resistant perennial grass, plays a crucial role in restoring semi-arid and arid rangelands and combating desertification. This study parameterized, calibrated, validated, and tested the LINTUL-MULTICROP model to assess S. ciliata biomass responses under three global climate models (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-AO, and MPI-ESM-MR). Model calibration and validation showed strong correlations between observed and simulated biomass (R2 = 0.985 and 0.981, respectively), with statistical assessments confirming satisfactory performance (nRMSE = 14.70%, MAE = 0.648 t ha−1, p = 0.92, d-index = 0.994). Climate change simulations under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projected increasing biomass across future periods, peaking at 14.6 t ha−1 in 2080–2099. The results highlight S. ciliata’s potential in climate adaptation, emphasizing its role in enhancing biomass productivity while raising concerns about biodiversity conservation. The validated LINTUL model provides a reliable tool for predicting ecosystem responses in arid environments, supporting sustainable land management and rangeland restoration strategies amid evolving climate challenges.

Graphical abstract