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<p>Given the decline in winter chill across growing regions, temperate fruit tree growers must integrate climate change considerations into their planning. Meeting the chilling requirements (CR) of cultivars presents a significant challenge, particularly in regions, where chill accumulation is essential for production. Accurately evaluating agroclimatic needs is vital for selecting suitable cultivars and predicting their performance under future climate conditions. Our research investigates the agroclimatic requirements of six peach cultivars in northwestern Tunisia, focusing on dormancy breaking dates to calculate CR. Shoots accumulate chill naturally in the field before being transferred to growth chamber to simulate the transition to active growth. This experimental approach also evaluates the cultivars’ adaptability to warmer conditions by comparing their CR with projected chill accumulation under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the years 2050 and 2085, using data from fifteen Global Climate Models. We assessed the likelihood of cultivars meeting CR by analyzing Safe Winter Chill values across Tunisia, previously established by Benmoussa et al. (<CitationRef CitationID="CR8">2020</CitationRef>). CR ranged from 31 to 54.3 Chill Portions, while heat requirements for blooming spanned 3629-5319 growing degree hours. Results indicate declining chill accumulation, potentially affecting cultivars with high CR, such as ‘Carnival’ and ‘Tardibelle’. Cultivars with lower CR, such as ‘Blanvio 10’ and ‘Plagold 250’, are better suited to future climates. These results offer valuable insights for optimizing cultivation techniques to mitigate climate change impacts and guide breeding strategies to develop resilient fruit tree portfolios for warmer climates.</p> Graphical abstract <p></p>

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Experimental evaluation of agroclimatic requirements of peach cultivars (Prunus persica L.) and their adaptation to future climate scenarios in warm climate regions

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月5日

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  • Nadia Borgini,
  • Haïfa Benmoussa,
  • Mohamed Ghrab,
  • Mehdi Ben Mimoun

摘要

Given the decline in winter chill across growing regions, temperate fruit tree growers must integrate climate change considerations into their planning. Meeting the chilling requirements (CR) of cultivars presents a significant challenge, particularly in regions, where chill accumulation is essential for production. Accurately evaluating agroclimatic needs is vital for selecting suitable cultivars and predicting their performance under future climate conditions. Our research investigates the agroclimatic requirements of six peach cultivars in northwestern Tunisia, focusing on dormancy breaking dates to calculate CR. Shoots accumulate chill naturally in the field before being transferred to growth chamber to simulate the transition to active growth. This experimental approach also evaluates the cultivars’ adaptability to warmer conditions by comparing their CR with projected chill accumulation under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the years 2050 and 2085, using data from fifteen Global Climate Models. We assessed the likelihood of cultivars meeting CR by analyzing Safe Winter Chill values across Tunisia, previously established by Benmoussa et al. (2020). CR ranged from 31 to 54.3 Chill Portions, while heat requirements for blooming spanned 3629-5319 growing degree hours. Results indicate declining chill accumulation, potentially affecting cultivars with high CR, such as ‘Carnival’ and ‘Tardibelle’. Cultivars with lower CR, such as ‘Blanvio 10’ and ‘Plagold 250’, are better suited to future climates. These results offer valuable insights for optimizing cultivation techniques to mitigate climate change impacts and guide breeding strategies to develop resilient fruit tree portfolios for warmer climates.

Graphical abstract