Modeling current and future pomegranate distribution under climate change scenarios in the Fes-Meknes region, Morocco

This study examines the potential effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of ecological niches for pomegranate, a climate change-tolerant species, within the Fes-Meknes region of Morocco. We employ the principle of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) in conjunction with Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques to simulate suitable habitats for the species under current and projected future climate scenarios (horizon 2060). Future projections are derived from CMIP6 downscaled data, utilizing the ACCES-CM2 model and various scenarios of SSP emissions. The results highlight the predominant influence of key parameters such as mean precipitation during the driest and wettest months, seasonality of mean precipitation, isotherm, mean temperature, and altitude. These factors collectively contribute to over 80% of the optimal conditions for pomegranate cultivation. In comparison with the existing cultivation area in the Fez–Meknes region (1150 ha), the results of this study indicate a potential expansion to 620,463.39 ha under current climatic conditions. This anticipated area constitutes approximately 47.7% of the region’s agriculturally exploitable land. However, future scenarios suggest a reduction in suitable areas due to unfavorable climatic conditions. The implications of these findings are crucial for predicting the development of pomegranate cultivation in the region under the influence of climate change. By enhancing our understanding of how climate variability affects pomegranate distribution, we can better inform adaptation strategies for agricultural practices in the face of changing environmental conditions.