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<p>Using a comprehensive panel dataset of 48 sub-Saharan African countries from 1970 to 2024, this essay study employs a mixed-methods research design, triangulating regression analysis with fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), to investigate the causal impact of foreign aid on state-building. Transcending unidimensional correlational analyses, the article advances a “comprehensive multi-causal” theoretical framework that integrates probabilistic statistical trends with configurational logic. Departing from the reductive “aid-is-harmful” thesis, our findings delineate a nuanced and heterogeneous impact: while aggregate foreign aid exerts a statistically significant negative effect on state capacity, this relationship is highly bifurcated by types of aid. Specifically, concessional loans are robustly associated with enhanced state capacity, whereas grant aid correlates with its erosion. This divergence is driven by two distinct governance logics: concessional loans catalyze an “accountability logic”, wherein repayment obligations incentivize sovereign debtors to bolster revenue extraction, streamline bureaucratic coordination, and improve policy implementation. Conversely, grant-based aid reinforces a “rent-seeking logic” that compromises domestic accountability and attenuates endogenous institutional incentives. Crucially, these causal pathways are context-contingent; the magnitude and direction of these effects are moderated by structural variables, most notably ethnic fractionalization, regime type, and natural resource rents.</p>

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Free or Fee? Foreign Aid and State-Building in Sub-Saharan Africa

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年8月5日

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  • Gu Baomi,
  • Lu Lingyu

摘要

Using a comprehensive panel dataset of 48 sub-Saharan African countries from 1970 to 2024, this essay study employs a mixed-methods research design, triangulating regression analysis with fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), to investigate the causal impact of foreign aid on state-building. Transcending unidimensional correlational analyses, the article advances a “comprehensive multi-causal” theoretical framework that integrates probabilistic statistical trends with configurational logic. Departing from the reductive “aid-is-harmful” thesis, our findings delineate a nuanced and heterogeneous impact: while aggregate foreign aid exerts a statistically significant negative effect on state capacity, this relationship is highly bifurcated by types of aid. Specifically, concessional loans are robustly associated with enhanced state capacity, whereas grant aid correlates with its erosion. This divergence is driven by two distinct governance logics: concessional loans catalyze an “accountability logic”, wherein repayment obligations incentivize sovereign debtors to bolster revenue extraction, streamline bureaucratic coordination, and improve policy implementation. Conversely, grant-based aid reinforces a “rent-seeking logic” that compromises domestic accountability and attenuates endogenous institutional incentives. Crucially, these causal pathways are context-contingent; the magnitude and direction of these effects are moderated by structural variables, most notably ethnic fractionalization, regime type, and natural resource rents.