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<p>How has Chinese popular nationalism evolved from 2008 to 2021 across age, period, and cohort dimensions? While most previous research examines nationalism at fixed points, studies addressing its trends often do not distinguish these three effects, resulting in conflicting findings. Challenging conventional views of linear development, this study reveals that Chinese popular nationalism followed a nonlinear trajectory “from waning to resurgence” between 2008 and 2021. By applying Hierarchical APC-Cross-Classified Random Effects Models (HAPC-CCREM) to pooled data from the China Social Governance Survey (CSGS) and other nationally representative surveys, this study reveals several key patterns. Age effects on nationalism form an inverted U shape, peaking among middle-aged individuals. Period effects reveal a surge after the 2008 Beijing Olympics, a marked decline by 2015, and an unprecedented peak in 2021. Cohort effects highlight the 1945–1949 and post-1995 birth cohorts as the most nationalistic. As the younger, highly nationalistic cohorts replace older ones, popular nationalism in China is likely to remain intense. By introducing the APC framework, this study offers new insights into the evolving trends and complex dynamics of Chinese popular nationalism.</p>

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From Waning to Resurgence: Tracing Chinese Popular Nationalism by Age, Period, and Cohort, 2008–2021

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月9日

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  • Wenchao Liu,
  • Tangbiao Xiao

摘要

How has Chinese popular nationalism evolved from 2008 to 2021 across age, period, and cohort dimensions? While most previous research examines nationalism at fixed points, studies addressing its trends often do not distinguish these three effects, resulting in conflicting findings. Challenging conventional views of linear development, this study reveals that Chinese popular nationalism followed a nonlinear trajectory “from waning to resurgence” between 2008 and 2021. By applying Hierarchical APC-Cross-Classified Random Effects Models (HAPC-CCREM) to pooled data from the China Social Governance Survey (CSGS) and other nationally representative surveys, this study reveals several key patterns. Age effects on nationalism form an inverted U shape, peaking among middle-aged individuals. Period effects reveal a surge after the 2008 Beijing Olympics, a marked decline by 2015, and an unprecedented peak in 2021. Cohort effects highlight the 1945–1949 and post-1995 birth cohorts as the most nationalistic. As the younger, highly nationalistic cohorts replace older ones, popular nationalism in China is likely to remain intense. By introducing the APC framework, this study offers new insights into the evolving trends and complex dynamics of Chinese popular nationalism.