Goodbye Taiwan; Welcome China: The Changing Foreign Policies of Central American Countries (2000–2018)

This study explores the divergent diplomatic choices of Central American countries regarding recognition of Beijing versus Taipei between 2000 and 2018, despite their similar geopolitical and socioeconomic contexts. We analyze foreign policy shifts in Costa Rica, Panama, the Dominican Republic, and El Salvador (G1 group), which established diplomatic relations with China, in contrast to Guatemala, Nicaragua, Honduras, and Belize (G2 group), which maintained recognition of Taiwan. Utilizing process-tracing and fuzzy-sets qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), our findings indicate that no single condition is both necessary and sufficient to account for the diplomatic transitions observed in G1. However, Chinese Development Assistance (ODA) emerges as the condition most closely associated with these shifts due to its empirical consistency. We identify two sufficient combinations of conditions that drive diplomatic change: both include Increased Exports to China (EXP), the PRC’s Position in Export Markets (PEXP), Chinese Development Assistance (ODA), and Left-wing or Center-left Ruling Party Ideology (PP). In addition, for Costa Rica specifically, the Repudiation of Corruption Cases Involving Former Leaders Associated with Taiwan (CTW) plays a significant role. These findings highlight the complex interplay of economic factors, political ideologies, and corruption in shaping the diplomatic strategies of Central American nations.