Scholarlink

<p>Pakistan faces growing water scarcity due to socio-economic pressures and limited adaptation to climate change. While several studies have analyzed hydrology, meteorology, and flood risks in the Kabul River Basin (KRB), they have not focused on integrated assessments that combine socioeconomic development with water management. This study fills that gap by evaluating both current and future water supply-demand dynamics in the Lower Kabul River Basin using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model. The model incorporates socio-economic projections such as population growth and agricultural expansion alongside climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the period 2023–2050. Calibration and validation of the model using streamflow data from 2010 to 2022 achieved strong performance, with average Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values of 0.83 and 0.89, and average coefficient of determination (R²) values of 0.89 and 0.91. The results indicate that by 2050, water demand is expected to increase by 15% for domestic use and 47% for agriculture under the reference scenario. Unmet water demand could rise by 18% under the high population and development conditions. However, improved water management practices, including efficient irrigation, can reduce unmet demand by up to 50%. The study offers practical strategies for sustainable water management under changing climatic and socioeconomic conditions, directly addressing SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation), specifically targets 6.4 on water use efficiency and 6.5 on integrated water-resources management.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Analyzing Water Demand and Supply Under Socioeconomic and Climate Change Scenarios Using WEAP: a Case Study of Kabul River Basin, Pakistan

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月25日

查看全文
  • Humaira Abid,
  • Javed Iqbal,
  • Adnan Abbas Shah,
  • Aiman Zafar

摘要

Pakistan faces growing water scarcity due to socio-economic pressures and limited adaptation to climate change. While several studies have analyzed hydrology, meteorology, and flood risks in the Kabul River Basin (KRB), they have not focused on integrated assessments that combine socioeconomic development with water management. This study fills that gap by evaluating both current and future water supply-demand dynamics in the Lower Kabul River Basin using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model. The model incorporates socio-economic projections such as population growth and agricultural expansion alongside climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the period 2023–2050. Calibration and validation of the model using streamflow data from 2010 to 2022 achieved strong performance, with average Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values of 0.83 and 0.89, and average coefficient of determination (R²) values of 0.89 and 0.91. The results indicate that by 2050, water demand is expected to increase by 15% for domestic use and 47% for agriculture under the reference scenario. Unmet water demand could rise by 18% under the high population and development conditions. However, improved water management practices, including efficient irrigation, can reduce unmet demand by up to 50%. The study offers practical strategies for sustainable water management under changing climatic and socioeconomic conditions, directly addressing SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation), specifically targets 6.4 on water use efficiency and 6.5 on integrated water-resources management.