<p>Evaluation of how extreme precipitation responds to climate change is critical in monsoon-dominated regions such as Kerala, India. This present study aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of historical and future precipitation extremes by integrating Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), the coupled model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate projections and Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) based severity analysis. Daily precipitation from regionally downscaled CMIP6 models (0.25⁰ × 0.25⁰) was evaluated against the India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded observations. Annual ETCCDI indices were computed for historical and projected climate scenarios, followed by GEV-based severity analysis to identify extreme precipitation hotspots using the top 20% quantile. Results reveal a significant structural reorganisation and intensification of precipitation extremes across the region of Kerala. The near future (2026–2050) shows a clear departure from historical conditions, with mean severity increasing beyond 0.55 at many locations, indicating that enhanced extreme rainfall risk is already emerging due to committed warming. Intermediate emissions produce the strongest and most spatially coherent amplification, while higher emission scenarios show a transition toward fewer but more intense events in the mid future (2051–2075). Rainfall concentration indices exhibit widespread hotspot expansion (54–58%), highlighting increasing dominance of extreme events. Identified hotspots closely align with historically flood and landslide-prone districts such as Idukki and Wayanad. The findings demonstrate that future hydroclimatic risk in Kerala will be governed by rainfall intensity, persistence, and concentration rather than mean changes alone, emphasising the need for severity-based adaptation planning.</p>