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<p>Groundwater serves as the primary source of freshwater in rapidly growing semi-arid urban settlements. Climate change and intensive exploitation pose serious threats to the sustainability of groundwater resources in the future. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the temporal-spatial dynamics of groundwater levels and drought characteristics in the area of Peshawar (Pakistan). A monthly time series from 2006 to 2023 was used to assess long-term trends in groundwater levels and their relationship to drought events using the Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimation, and the Innovative Trend Analysis method. Climatic factors influencing water dynamics were identified using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at three time scales (6, 12, and 24 months). Findings: The results indicate strong negative trends in groundwater levels (statistically significant, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.05), with a total decline of 20.11–56.49&#xa0;m. Sen’s slope estimates range between 1.19 and 2.81&#xa0;m per year. The strongest declines in groundwater levels are observed in the central and western zones of the region. On the other hand, weak trends for both indices (SPI/SPEI) characterize the studied period. Both SPI and SPEI indicate occasional droughts, which could not entirely explain the observed decline in groundwater levels. Lag-correlation analysis showed moderate sensitivity of groundwater to precipitation deficits, with a 4-month lag for SPI-12 and up to 11 months for SPEI-12. While 24-month periods were considered, the strongest correlation with groundwater anomalies occurred at the 12-month accumulation period. SPEI-24 showed higher dry condition occurrences than SPI-24, but the explanatory power of both remained insufficient to fully account for the magnitude of groundwater depletion. Finally, land-use analysis demonstrates a high prevalence of urban areas (covering over 69% of the region). Agricultural land use is significantly lower than in previous years. Land-use changes are closely associated with the areas most affected by groundwater depletion. The aquifer is on the verge of chronic overdraft, mainly due to intensive exploitation combined with climatic droughts.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p>

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Groundwater Depletion and Drought Propagation in an Urban Aquifer under Anthropogenic Pressure and Climate Variability

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月2日

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  • Uzair Khan,
  • Shah Faisal,
  • Alper Baba

摘要

Groundwater serves as the primary source of freshwater in rapidly growing semi-arid urban settlements. Climate change and intensive exploitation pose serious threats to the sustainability of groundwater resources in the future. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the temporal-spatial dynamics of groundwater levels and drought characteristics in the area of Peshawar (Pakistan). A monthly time series from 2006 to 2023 was used to assess long-term trends in groundwater levels and their relationship to drought events using the Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimation, and the Innovative Trend Analysis method. Climatic factors influencing water dynamics were identified using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at three time scales (6, 12, and 24 months). Findings: The results indicate strong negative trends in groundwater levels (statistically significant, p < 0.05), with a total decline of 20.11–56.49 m. Sen’s slope estimates range between 1.19 and 2.81 m per year. The strongest declines in groundwater levels are observed in the central and western zones of the region. On the other hand, weak trends for both indices (SPI/SPEI) characterize the studied period. Both SPI and SPEI indicate occasional droughts, which could not entirely explain the observed decline in groundwater levels. Lag-correlation analysis showed moderate sensitivity of groundwater to precipitation deficits, with a 4-month lag for SPI-12 and up to 11 months for SPEI-12. While 24-month periods were considered, the strongest correlation with groundwater anomalies occurred at the 12-month accumulation period. SPEI-24 showed higher dry condition occurrences than SPI-24, but the explanatory power of both remained insufficient to fully account for the magnitude of groundwater depletion. Finally, land-use analysis demonstrates a high prevalence of urban areas (covering over 69% of the region). Agricultural land use is significantly lower than in previous years. Land-use changes are closely associated with the areas most affected by groundwater depletion. The aquifer is on the verge of chronic overdraft, mainly due to intensive exploitation combined with climatic droughts.

Graphical Abstract