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<p>Interannual variability of climate variables significantly impacts water availability in Thailand, with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) being considered the major drivers of climate variability. This study investigates the spatio-temporal trend of rainfall and temperature (minimum [T<sub>min</sub>] and maximum [T<sub>max</sub>] temperatures) and their association with ENSO and IOD in Thailand during 1991–2023, using the Mann–Kendall test, Theil-Sen’s slope estimator test, and a correlation-based approach. In this study, rainfall data from 98 stations, T<sub>max</sub> data from 74 stations, and T<sub>min</sub> data from 73 stations were used for analysis. Results show significant (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) increasing trends in rainfall over a small percentage of stations (2.0 to 14.3%) at annual and seasonal scales. A significant increasing trend was observed in T<sub>min</sub> and T<sub>max</sub> over 64.4% and 47.3% of stations, respectively, at the country level on an annual scale. In general, an increase in the magnitude of increasing trend (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) in temperature (both T<sub>max</sub>, and T<sub>min</sub>) was observed with an increase in latitude at both seasonal and annual scales. Most parts of Thailand experienced below-average rainfall during El Niño years and above-average rainfall during La Niña years at both seasonal and annual scales during 1991–2023. ENSO significantly (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) affected annual T<sub>max</sub> across Thailand but had a non-significant effect on annual T<sub>min</sub>. IOD showed a significant and regionally varied influence on rainfall characteristics, affecting 4% to 43% of stations across different regions of Thailand. Further, weak to moderate effects of IOD were observed on T<sub>min</sub> and T<sub>max</sub> in Thailand during 1991–2023. Overall, the present study’s findings could help policymakers to develop effective climate and water management strategies for the study area.</p>

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Spatio-temporal Variability of Rainfall and Temperature and their Association with ENSO and IOD over Different Meteorological Regions of Thailand

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月8日

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  • Mallappa Jadiyappa Madolli,
  • Sajjad Hasnain Md Haikel,
  • Vivek Gupta,
  • Natthachet Tangdamrongsub,
  • Avishek Datta,
  • Sushil Kumar Himanshu

摘要

Interannual variability of climate variables significantly impacts water availability in Thailand, with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) being considered the major drivers of climate variability. This study investigates the spatio-temporal trend of rainfall and temperature (minimum [Tmin] and maximum [Tmax] temperatures) and their association with ENSO and IOD in Thailand during 1991–2023, using the Mann–Kendall test, Theil-Sen’s slope estimator test, and a correlation-based approach. In this study, rainfall data from 98 stations, Tmax data from 74 stations, and Tmin data from 73 stations were used for analysis. Results show significant (p < 0.05) increasing trends in rainfall over a small percentage of stations (2.0 to 14.3%) at annual and seasonal scales. A significant increasing trend was observed in Tmin and Tmax over 64.4% and 47.3% of stations, respectively, at the country level on an annual scale. In general, an increase in the magnitude of increasing trend (p < 0.05) in temperature (both Tmax, and Tmin) was observed with an increase in latitude at both seasonal and annual scales. Most parts of Thailand experienced below-average rainfall during El Niño years and above-average rainfall during La Niña years at both seasonal and annual scales during 1991–2023. ENSO significantly (p < 0.05) affected annual Tmax across Thailand but had a non-significant effect on annual Tmin. IOD showed a significant and regionally varied influence on rainfall characteristics, affecting 4% to 43% of stations across different regions of Thailand. Further, weak to moderate effects of IOD were observed on Tmin and Tmax in Thailand during 1991–2023. Overall, the present study’s findings could help policymakers to develop effective climate and water management strategies for the study area.