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<p>Driven by population growth and economic development, the demand for water resources continues to increase worldwide, leading to regional and seasonal water scarcity in many countries. Accurate assessment of water scarcity risks is essential for effective water resource risk management and allocation, depending on the continuous development and innovation of water scarcity risk evaluation methods. This study reviews the historical development of these methods, analyzes their trends, and summarizes the theoretical foundations, implementation processes, application scenarios, and limitations, providing insights for future research directions. Initially, we employ bibliometric statistics and keyword clustering analysis to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of relevant studies and identify focal points and hotspots, uncovering relationships between publication numbers and factors such as national attention, population, and financial investment. We innovatively categorize primary evaluation methods into six types: single index method, indicator system evaluation, stochastic simulation, artificial intelligence, remote sensing and GIS, and virtual water economics. Theoretical foundations, implementation processes, and algorithm principles of each category are summarized, and application scenarios and limitations are discussed, facilitating a deeper understanding and expansion for readers. Finally, we explore and prospect key issues, including assessment and prediction of water scarcity risks under multi-scenario coupling, differences and accuracy of water scarcity risk assessments at various spatiotemporal scales, rural water scarcity risk evaluation, and integration of high-resolution remote sensing with drought limit water levels for water scarcity risk assessment, aiming to provide new directions and perspectives for future research.</p>

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A Review of Assessment Methods for Water Shortage Risk: Trend Analysis, Method Summary, and Future Research Prospects

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月18日

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  • Tanghui Qian,
  • Liang Hong,
  • Shixiang Gu,
  • Jing Chen,
  • Jinming Chen,
  • Tianlin Tu

摘要

Driven by population growth and economic development, the demand for water resources continues to increase worldwide, leading to regional and seasonal water scarcity in many countries. Accurate assessment of water scarcity risks is essential for effective water resource risk management and allocation, depending on the continuous development and innovation of water scarcity risk evaluation methods. This study reviews the historical development of these methods, analyzes their trends, and summarizes the theoretical foundations, implementation processes, application scenarios, and limitations, providing insights for future research directions. Initially, we employ bibliometric statistics and keyword clustering analysis to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of relevant studies and identify focal points and hotspots, uncovering relationships between publication numbers and factors such as national attention, population, and financial investment. We innovatively categorize primary evaluation methods into six types: single index method, indicator system evaluation, stochastic simulation, artificial intelligence, remote sensing and GIS, and virtual water economics. Theoretical foundations, implementation processes, and algorithm principles of each category are summarized, and application scenarios and limitations are discussed, facilitating a deeper understanding and expansion for readers. Finally, we explore and prospect key issues, including assessment and prediction of water scarcity risks under multi-scenario coupling, differences and accuracy of water scarcity risk assessments at various spatiotemporal scales, rural water scarcity risk evaluation, and integration of high-resolution remote sensing with drought limit water levels for water scarcity risk assessment, aiming to provide new directions and perspectives for future research.