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<p>The study employs a stochastic, recursive model to identify optimal biofuel production and land-use change under AR6 and green finance policies in Taiwan. The results show that (1) significant climate impacts would decrease total biofuel production from 185.7 to 149.9&#xa0;million gallons and substantially change cropping patterns, but residual utilization, depending on the level of climate impacts, offers a reliable lower bound (40.77–50.46%) of total biofuel production; (2) green bond mechanism improves biofuel production by lowering investment and operating costs, and the sufficient green bond volume should range from $840–1120&#xa0;million to support qualified biofuel producers. The current size of the green bond market is insufficient for optimal biofuel development; (3) the inefficient emission trade system would incur a loss of $10.89–23.24&#xa0;million to biofuel producers; and (4) approximately 15,100 hectares of cropland would be set aside, and about 69,500 hectares of currently abandoned land would be converted into production.</p>

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Counterfactual scenario modeling for improving project completion in transportation infrastructure through BIM-enabled monitoring and control

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年8月4日

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  • Mehdi Farivar,
  • Maryam Yahyavi Niar,
  • Akhshin Bahmanpour

摘要

The study employs a stochastic, recursive model to identify optimal biofuel production and land-use change under AR6 and green finance policies in Taiwan. The results show that (1) significant climate impacts would decrease total biofuel production from 185.7 to 149.9 million gallons and substantially change cropping patterns, but residual utilization, depending on the level of climate impacts, offers a reliable lower bound (40.77–50.46%) of total biofuel production; (2) green bond mechanism improves biofuel production by lowering investment and operating costs, and the sufficient green bond volume should range from $840–1120 million to support qualified biofuel producers. The current size of the green bond market is insufficient for optimal biofuel development; (3) the inefficient emission trade system would incur a loss of $10.89–23.24 million to biofuel producers; and (4) approximately 15,100 hectares of cropland would be set aside, and about 69,500 hectares of currently abandoned land would be converted into production.