<p>The number of visitors to Jerash exceeded 493,000 in 2023. These tourists are forced to pass through a single entrance and exit: Hadrian's Arch, the southern gateway to the city. This poses a potential threat to the structure and safety of the arch if the number of tourists exceeds the site's capacity. The number of visitors to Jerash is expected to reach 1.6 million by 2029, a figure that will surpass the capacity of Hadrian's Arch and its surrounding area. Studies calculating the capacity of Jerash, and specifically Hadrian's Arch, are very limited, as are articles discussing the structural integrity of the arch. Qualitative and quantitative studies are needed in this area. In this study, we used the ARIMA model to predict the number of visitors to Jerash over the next six years. We also calculated the capacity of the area surrounding Hadrian's Arch and compared these results to determine the extent of the risk posed by excessive tourism to the arch's safety. The focus was on the non-seasonal ARIMA (0.2.1) model, which was based on annual data. A range of non-seasonal models were compared, and this model proved to be the best. Monthly data and seasonal models were also analyzed, but the seasonal models did not demonstrate success. Forecasting visitor numbers for the coming years and determining the site's capacity are crucial for providing appropriate site management recommendations. Key recommendations included upgrading the urban transport system around Hadrian's Arch and integrating the site into this system by adding new gates, creating pedestrian walkways around the arch, implementing smart ticketing, and using artificial intelligence for crowd management and direction. This study employed a mixed quantitative and qualitative approach and is among the first to link statistical forecasting with risk management at heritage sites such as Jerash.</p>