Reinforced concrete infrastructure longevity: integrating natural chloride exposure protocols and prediction modelling
摘要
In coastal and de-icing environments, chloride-induced corrosion is the primary durability challenge for reinforced concrete (RC) structures. This study investigated natural wet-dry chloride exposure effects on flexural strength in eighteen M20 concrete beams (700 × 150 × 300 mm) with Fe500D reinforcement subjected to 12-h wetting–drying cycles with 5% NaCl for 30–180 days. Flexural strength decreased from 8.23 ± 0.02 MPa (baseline) to 7.42 ± 0.04 MPa after 180 days (9.9% reduction), while rebar corrosion reached 2.42 ± 0.22%. Statistical analysis (F₅,₁₂ = 142.8, p < 0.001, η2 = 0.983) confirmed significant degradation. Two power-law models characterized degradation: corrosion kinetics (Corrosion% = 0.1433 × t0.5434, R2 = 0.989) showing decelerating progression, and strength loss (Strength_Loss% = 2.0485 × Corrosion%1.7828, R2 = 0.998) demonstrating super-linear amplification from bond degradation and concrete cracking beyond simple steel thinning. Multi-metric validation (cross-validation Q2 = 0.992, MAPE = 2.08%, R2 − Q2 gap = 0.006) confirmed negligible overfitting. External validation against François et al.’s independent 27-year coastal field data achieved ± 15% accuracy, demonstrating laboratory-field transferability. Natural wet-dry protocols achieved 13-fold acceleration versus field conditions, with results validating against long-term exposure data. This approach enables practical laboratory durability assessment while maintaining morphological realism for infrastructure monitoring applications.