Unveiling the hidden impact: long-term creep effects on high concrete arch dams - a paradigm shift in structural analysis and design

Long-term creep in concrete induces significant stress release, which is a critical consideration for the maintenance strategies, safety, and risk assessment of concrete dams. This study examines the effects of creep on the structural behavior of high concrete arch dams, focusing on Karun I as a detailed case study. By applying Norton formulation parameters obtained from experimental creep data, we performed a comprehensive set of thermal and structural analyses calibrated with real data from instruments installed in the dam. Our findings reveal that neglecting the effects of creep can lead to substantial inaccuracies in structural modeling, particularly when contraction joints are included, which amplify the impact of creep. We conclude that existing international guidelines inadequately account for the creep phenomenon, emphasizing the need for updated models in evaluating the structural integrity of older concrete arch dams. This research has important implications for improving codes and maintenance practices, ultimately enhancing the safety and longevity of concrete infrastructure.